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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 11

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published October 11, 2023
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

  • My Pick: Phillies ML

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Thanks to a dreadful first inning by ace Sonny Gray on Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins are facing elimination in Wednesday’s Game 4 against the Houston Astros. Meanwhile, the Astros are just one win away from reaching the ALCS for the seventh straight season. Both teams are dipping deep into their rotation on Wednesday with Jose Urquidy starting for Houston against Minnesota’s Joe Ryan. That levels the playing field a little bit, but with Houston’s lineup looking more dynamic during this series, the Astros are poised to finish off the series and clinch a spot in the ALCS.

Urquidy had an unusual season, missing a huge chunk of the year from May to August and pitching to a 5.29 ERA when he was healthy enough to take the mound. However, he’s a proven postseason pitcher, making 12 previous playoff appearances for Houston. He also finished the regular season strong, throwing nine consecutive scoreless innings, including six scoreless frames against the Diamondbacks in his final start of the year. Urquidy will be facing a Minnesota lineup that’s averaged just 3.2 runs per game during the postseason and managed just one run in Tuesday’s loss. That should position Urquidy to give the Astros a quality start and allow the Houston lineup to do the rest.

The Astros have actually scored more runs in three playoff games than the Twins have in five playoff games. That says a lot about the challenge that’s in front of Ryan. While his track record against most of Houston’s batters is solid, Ryan has endured an up-and-down year, going 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA. Over his last three starts of the regular season, Ryan covered 16 innings, yielding 13 runs on 20 hits. Factor in a layoff of nearly two weeks since he last pitched and Ryan isn’t necessarily set up for success in this matchup. The Twins will either need a strong outing from Ryan or a healthy amount of run support to win this game. It’s far from a certainty that they’ll get either, positioning the Astros to take Game 4 and win the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

  • My Pick: Dodgers -1.5

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have their backs against the wall heading into Game 3 of the NLDS on Wednesday against the Arizona Diamondbacks. With one more loss, the Dodgers will be eliminated in the NLDS by an NL West rival for the second straight season. The silver lining is that they’ll have a veteran in Lance Lynn to help extend their season, while Arizona will be relying on rookie Brandon Pfaadt. That pitching matchup should be enough for the Dodgers to win Game 3 on the road and stave off elimination for at least one more day.

While the results have been mixed, Lynn has 58 innings of playoff experience under his belt, which should help him in Game 3. He’s also been solid but unspectacular since being traded to the Dodgers. Lynn has held opposing teams to two runs or less in six of his 11 starts for Los Angeles, helping the Dodgers go 9-2 in those games. Obviously, the Dodgers will need their bullpen to pull its weight and cool off an Arizona lineup that’s averaging 6.5 runs per game during the postseason. But Lynn should be able to give them a few solid innings, allowing the Los Angeles lineup to get rolling after scoring just two runs in each of the first two games of the series.

Of course, the fact that the Dodgers are facing Pfaadt should help the Los Angeles lineup to wake up. The rookie went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA in the big leagues this year. He was given a chance against the Brewers in the Wild Card round and allowed three runs on seven hits over 2.2 innings. Granted, the lefty had two starts in September in which he pitched five-plus scoreless innings. But Pfaadt also struggled in both of his starts against the Dodgers this year, giving up nine earned runs on 14 hits over just 8.2 innings. The Dodgers know that their backs are against the wall, and a veteran lineup should respond and score enough runs to win Game 3 by a comfortable margin, even if the D’Backs are able to score a few runs themselves.

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AUTHOR

Bryan Zarpentine

199 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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