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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, October 16

Written by: Michael Savio
Published October 16, 2023
11 min read
Best MLB Bets Today October 16

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. See other MLB Sportsbook for more betting opportunities! 

Our Pick: Astros ML

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The Rangers took the first game of the ALCS in a close game last night, but Houston will tie the series up today. As well as the Rangers have been playing, they still have some significant holes. One of the biggest is their bullpen, who is without a reliable closer. They were lights out in the win last night, but they caught the Astros offense on a cold night. The pitching was decent but not good enough to stop a loaded Houston offense. Look for them to bounce back today and for the Rangers bullpen problems to resurface. 

We also love this bet because the Rangers will have Nathan Eovaldi (12-5 3.63) on the mound. The veteran played a vital role for this team, serving well as the defacto ace after Jacob deGrom went down at the beginning of the year. He was bad to close the season after an injury hampered him, but he snapped back to throw two great games in the postseason. However, he will be facing a team that knows him well tonight. In fact, this same Astros team tagged him for four runs in 1 ⅓ inning last month. We don’t know if it will be that bad tonight, but it won’t be good enough to get a win.

The Astros will have Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45 ERA) making the start tonight. The ace regressed in the back of the season and is suddenly struggling consistently. We are trusting him tonight for a couple of reasons. First, Valdez dominated the Rangers just a few weeks ago, allowing one run over seven innings. The second is his long history in the playoffs. That includes last season, when he made four starts, going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA. He knows how to pitch on baseball’s biggest stage and will show that en route to a crucial Game 2 win.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Our Pick: Under 7.5

The NLCS brings us a matchup between two wildcard teams. While both offenses have been seeing the ball well, they have been off for a few days and will now. We see that time off leading to a quiet game tonight with both aces on the mound. The NLCS is a massive stage, and you can bet the Philly crowd will be as loud as ever. That is a lot of pressure on both teams, and it will cause the offenses to overthink and sputter in the series-opening game.

The Diamondbacks will have Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA) on the mound tonight. The righty is one of the best pitchers in the NL and has been fantastic in the playoffs. He has allowed four runs over 11 ⅓ innings during the postseason, with starts against the Brewers and Dodgers. That means he has faced a lot of good offense, so a lineup featuring Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber. Gallen faced the Phillies once over the summer and allowed just two runs. We see a similar outing unfolding tonight.

Zack Wheeler will be getting the start for the Phillies tonight. He has been incredible during Philadelphia’s improbably postseason run, allowing just three runs on eight hits across 13 innings. His last start was the most impressive, allowing two runs and striking out ten on the road in Atlanta. That isn’t an easy place to pitch, and their offense was arguably the best in the league. The D-backs have been hot, but we think they run into a brick wall on the road in Wheeler.

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Michael Savio

412 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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