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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 7

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 7, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today September 07 23

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays

Odds courtesy of Caesars SportsbookCheck out our MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities.   

My Pick: Over

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This is one of Thursday’s best games, and we expect it to be a high-scoring thriller. A big reason for that is the play of these offenses. The Rays have been great all season, but the Mariners have recently found their bats. Seattle has a much-improved .265 batting average and a .471 slugging percentage since the All-Star break. While it's possible this is just a hot streak, this is the version of the Mariners we expected coming into the season. Look for them to stay hot tonight, putting up a big run total on a bad Rays pitcher. 

Tampa will have Zack Littell (3-4, 4.69 ERA) on the mound tonight. The reliever-turned-starter has not thrived in his new role, posting a 4.61 ERA across his previous six starts. There isn’t any sign that things are turning around, as Littell is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, where he allowed four runs on nine hits over 4 ⅔ innings. Add that to Littell’s 6.04 home ERA, and you can see why we love this bet.

The Mariners will have their ace on the mound tonight, Luis Castillo (11-7, 3.19 ERA). Though his season numbers are impressive, the 30-year-old has been struggling on the road. Castillo has made four road starts since August 1, posting a horrendous 6.12 ERA. Those struggles have been against bad teams, including the Mets, Royals, and Angels. The Rays may not be as dominant as they once were, but they will be good enough to wallop Castillo tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs

Odds courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.

My Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+105)

The second half of the season has not been kind for the Diamondbacks, who have a 19-29 record since the All-Star break. Things have been especially bad lately, as they have lost seven of their previous ten games. The biggest reason for their recent skid is their offense, which has regressed since the All-Star break. There are still a lot of talented bats in this Arizona lineup, but they will be up against an emerging star on the mound for Chicago tonight.

Javier Assad (3-2, 2.69 ERA) has become a vital part of the Cubs rotation since August 1. Since then, the 26-year-old is 2-0 with a 1.95 ERA. The Cubs won all but one of those games, showing just how valuable Assad is. He has been better on the road in 2023 but has made mostly road starts since joining the rotation. While the Diamondbacks lineup is dangerous, they have a .241 batting average since the break. Look for them to struggle to figure out Assad, leading to a lopsided win for the Cubbies.

The Diamondbacks will send rookie Slade Cecconi (0-1, 4.44 ERA) to the mound to face the Cubs. The 24-year-old had a solid August, though he has failed to last past the sixth inning. Cecconi is coming off his worst start, allowing six runs on nine hits over 3 ⅓ innings. Granted, the Orioles offense is fantastic, but so are the Cubs. The stat we are looking at tonight is his opponent's batting average. Hitters have a .184 average the first time they face him, but it jumps all the way up to .326 the second time. That will be a problem for Ceccone tonight, so look for him to struggle under the bright lights of Wrigley tonight.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbooks.

My Pick: Braves -1.5 (-148)

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The Cardinals posted one of the biggest MLB moneyline upsets in history last night, as the Braves lost their third consecutive game. It was an impressive feat for the Red Birds, but they are going to pay for it tonight. The Braves' pitching has been beaten up in the series' first two games, but Atlanta will have a major advantage in tonight’s pitching matchup. Considering how bad the Cardinals have been and how dominant the Braves are, this will be the easiest money you make all week.

We have been betting against Adam Wainwright (3-10, 8.10 ERA) all season, and it has paid off. The 42-year-old is at the end of his legendary career, and it has shown through his stats. Aside from the ugly record and ERA, the veteran has a horrendous 1.98 WHIP. That is going to be a big problem, considering he also owns an 8.67 ERA on the road and will be up against the best offenses in baseball. Wainwright allowed 25 runs across 20 ⅔ innings last month, and we don’t see things changing in September. Grab this bet while you still can.

The Braves will have one of their top arms on the mound, Max Fried (6-1, 2.52 ERA). The lefty has a 2.89 ERA in six starts since returning to the rotation, and he is coming off one of his most impressive. Fried dominated the Dodgers last week, allowing three hits and striking out 10 across seven scoreless innings. The Cardinals' offense can be dangerous, but they won’t be able to do enough against Fried to outpace the Braves lineup. Look for him to post another quality start as Atlanta walks away with a monster win tonight.

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Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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