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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 27

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published September 27, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today September 27

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities! 

My Pick: Orioles -1.5

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The Orioles are closing in on their first AL East title since 2014, so they aren’t going to take their foot off the gas, especially against their Beltway rivals. After a recent three-game losing streak, Baltimore has won three in a row and is poised to keep it going. With Patrick Corbin on the mound for the Nats, this is the type of game that could get a little out of control, which is why the Orioles should be able to cover the spread, giving them good value in this lopsided matchup.

Corbin has actually been better in 2023 than he was a year ago. However, he’s still 10-14 with a 5.13 ERA. The lefty has also posted a 6.86 ERA across his four starts in September, giving up at least five runs in two of those four starts. While Josiah Gray helped to hold the Orioles to just one run on Tuesday, Corbin is unlikely to replicate that. Despite some sluggish offensive showings in recent days, Baltimore has still scored at least five runs in six of the team’s last 10 games. Against Corbin, the Orioles should be able to get their bats going and do some damage in Wednesday’s game.

Baltimore will counter Corbin with young righty Grayson Rodriguez. Despite only earning six wins for the Orioles this year, the 23-year-old has put together a solid season. In fact, he’s been outstanding during the second half of the season. Rodriguez owns a 4.49 ERA on the season but pitched to a 2.64 ERA in August and has a 2.31 ERA over his four starts in September. Rodriguez has limited opponents to two runs or less in five straight starts, as well as seven of his last eight starts. That includes eight scoreless innings in a huge win over the Rays earlier this month. Based on his recent track record and Baltimore’s bullpen, the Nationals can’t expect to score many runs in this game. Plus, the Orioles only needed one inning from their bullpen in Tuesday’s shutout win over Washington, so the Baltimore bullpen should be fresh and ready to hold any lead they have when Rodriguez leaves Wednesday’s game.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Rangers -1.5

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The Angels pulled off a surprising win over Texas on Tuesday, ending the Rangers’ winning streak at six games. In September, Texas is just 3-7 when coming off a loss, which is a bad omen for them heading into the postseason. However, the Angels aren’t a good candidate to build off of Tuesday’s win. Prior to Tuesday, the Rangers had won six in a row, all by at least two runs. The smart money is still on Texas to bounce back with its star-studded lineup.

For what it’s worth, Dane Dunning isn’t the best candidate to help Texas avoid back-to-back losses. While he holds a 3.88 ERA on the season, he’s struggled lately, pitching to a 6.65 ERA in September. Of course, most of that stems from a disastrous game against Houston early in September when he allowed nine runs over 5.1 innings. He hasn’t been perfect since that start, although he’s pitched well enough for the Rangers to win two of his three starts. Keep in mind that the Angels are short-handed offensively coming down the stretch without Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and a few others. That should be enough to help Dunning put together a solid outing that allows the Texas lineup to go to work.

On the other side, Griffin Canning hasn’t been able to pitch well enough lately to overcome a lackluster LA lineup or a subpar bullpen. Since the middle of August, the Angels are just 1-6 in games that he’s started. To be fair, Canning has a 4.43 ERA in September, so he’s been solid. But the Angels have lost to the Tigers, A’s, and Mets over his last seven starts. He also gave up four runs on six hits in just 3.2 innings when he faced the Rangers in mid-August. The bottom line is that Canning is bound to give up a few runs in this game and is unlikely to go much further than five innings. That should allow the Texas lineup to score enough runs to win this game comfortably, even if Dunning isn’t perfect.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Astros ML

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After splitting the first two games of this series, the Astros and Mariners play a pivotal rubber match on Wednesday night. Both are still trying to catch the Rangers atop the AL West while Houston currently holds a half-game lead over Seattle for the final Wild Card spot. Therefore, the Mariners can overtake the Astros for the final playoff spot in the American League with a win. While the Mariners are 9-3 head-to-head against Houston this year, they haven’t played well enough lately to back in a big game against the reigning champs. Plus, Houston’s Framber Valdez has been a little more reliable lately than Seattle’s Bryce Miller, so we’ll learn toward the Astros to win Wednesday’s game.

Valdez is actually coming off a poor start against the Royals, yielding seven runs (six earned) over 5.1 innings. However, he also struck out 10 batters in that game, which appears to be an aberration. After all, it was his second straight start against Kansas City’s lineup. Also, in three of his last six starts, Valdez has allowed one run or less over seven innings. With this game having a playoff atmosphere, the lefty’s postseason experience should show up, allowing Valdez to keep the Seattle lineup under wraps.

Meanwhile, Bryce Miller will try to help the Mariners build some positive momentum after Tuesday’s win over the Astros snapped a four-game losing streak. The problem is that Miller owns a 5.49 ERA in September with the Mariners losing all four games he’s started. The rookie has already surpassed the number of innings he pitched last year and appears to be getting tired late in the season. To be fair, he tossed 5.1 scoreless innings against the Dodgers two starts ago. But Miller has also allowed at least five runs in two of his last three starts. Even if the Astros are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, they are still averaging 4.8 runs per game during that stretch. The Houston lineup should be able to get something against Miller, giving Valdez the support he needs to lead the Astros to a win.

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Bryan Zarpentine

199 Articles

Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.

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