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Best MLB Prop Bets This Weekend | MLB Player Props August 19-20

Written by: Michael Savio
Published August 19, 2023
13 min read
Braves vs Marlins Predictions

In baseball, there are many ways to find value betting on player props. One such way is to find props that carry some value at plus prices. Here, we have assembled our best MLB prop bets for Friday, all of which come at even money or better, to try and take advantage of such a strategy on the diamond.

San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves

My Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+200 at PointsBet Sportsbook)

It’s hard to pass up these odds for the league’s most prolific base stealer. Ronald Acuna Jr. (.334 BA, 27 HR, 73 RBI, 55 SB) is the odds-on favorite to win the NL MVP, thanks to his rare combination of consistent hitting, power, and speed. The young Braves star is stealing a base in 45.5% of games this season, but he has stolen just one over his previous six games. That means he is due, so we are grabbing these favorable odds while they last.

While Acuna’s talent is all the reason we need to make this bet, it isn’t the only factor we looked at. Giants’ starter Logan Webb (9-9, 3.26 ERA) is having a very nice season, but he has struggled to control baserunners. Webb has allowed a stolen base in five of his previous six games, with several going to players far less talented than Acuna. Webb will allow the young star on at least once today, and that's all it will take for Acuna to get a steal.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

My Pick: Logan Gilbert to Record a Win (+175 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Just when we thought the Mariners were done, they turned their season around. The team has won 15 of their previous 20 games, including against Houston last night. The Mariners’ offense is finally starting to produce consistently, leading them on a charge up the AL West standings. This is a massive division series that could allow them to catch Houston and close the gap on Texas. We think their hot streak continues with Logan Gilbert on the mound tonight.

Gilbert (10-5, 3.80 ERA) has become an important piece of this Seattle rotation. He has been improving in the second half of the season and is 5-0 with a 3.11 ERA since July 1. Gilbert faced the Astros in Houston last month, holding them to one run on three hits over seven innings. We see him delivering another impressive and deep start that the Mariners' bullpen will close out to earn him the win.

While Gilbert likely won’t need much help, he should get it with a struggling Framber Valdez (9-8, 3.31 ERA) on the mound for Houston. Valdez was a Cy Young favorite at the end of June, but things fell apart in July. The lefty posted a 7.29 ERA in July and allowed ten runs over his previous two starts (nine earned). Seattle’s offense is improving and should be able to capitalize on the floundering ace tonight. 

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

My Pick: Kodai Senga Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-167 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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If you are looking for a safe prop bet to add to a parlay, this is the one for you. Kodai Senga (9-6, 3.30 ERA) has been outstanding in his first MLB season, but he has struck out more than six just once in his previous five starts. Senga’s posted higher strikeout totals earlier this season, but that hasn’t happened lately. He has also struggled on the road, with a 4.14 ERA and a hefty .255 opponent batting average. That has led to shorter starts with lower strikeout totals, and it will be an issue against the Cardinals tonight.

While St. Louis has had a forgettable season, their offense is better than people realize. They have the seventh-highest team batting average and the ninth-least strikeouts in the league. It's no surprise, given that they have Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The high average and low strikeout total means they have been making pitchers work, holding pitchers to shorter starts and fewer strikeouts. 

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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