Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade the Diamondbacks High Powered Offense Against Yamamoto

Negative regression looms large over the Arizona Diamondbacks offense as they are set to battle it out against the Los Angeles Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto as he currently leads the league in ERA. A few minutes before their opening pitch, Chris Bassitt and Jose Soriano are in a favorable position to get off to a hot start as they face off against a pair of offenses who rank below league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Brandon Pfaadt (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After a disappointing rookie campaign per his preseason projections, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has started to live up to the hype as he has been near unstoppable this season. In his seven appearances, the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher is averaging an ERA of 0.90, a WHIP of 0.925, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. An impressive start to the season and one that has helped thrust his name to the top of the oddsboard for the NL Cy Young award.

Every bit of his individual production will be needed against Arizona as he faces off against a Diamondbacks offense who ranks above league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Fortunately for Yamamoto, he will have an opportunity to keep a clean sheet in the first inning against Arizona as the Diamondbacks' top of their order is vulnerable with Pavin Smith averaging less than one Hit per game.

Like the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers offense have also played at a very high level since the start of the season as the reigning World Series champions rank near the top of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. Against Arizona, expect the Dodgers offense to struggle to sustain their high level of play as they face off against Brandon Pfaadt who excels at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position as his ERA of 3.79 and low Walk Rate indicates. 

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels - Chris Bassitt vs. Jose Soriano (9:38 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-122) at BetRivers Sportsbook

After getting off to a hot start, the Toronto Blue Jays offense have steadily regressed over the past few weeks of play as their lineup currently ranks in the bottom half of the board in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Even with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr averaging over one Hit per game, the Blue Jays star duo have struggled to get into scoring position as both players possess an OPS lower than 0.800.

Their struggles on offense are poised to persist against Jose Soriano as the Los Angeles Angels pitcher currently averages an ERA of 3.83 and a FIP of 3.71. While his WHIP of 1.425 is a cause for concern, the Blue Jays struggles with advancing their runners into scoring position by stringing together their Hits will help mask his sporadic play on the mound. 

Chris Bassitt is also in a position to thrive as he faces off against a Los Angeles offense who ranks 29th overall in Team Total Hits and 30th in On Base Percentage. The Toronto pitcher excels at keeping opposing runners off the bases with his own individual production as he averages an ERA of 2.95 and a FIP of 2.91. Bassitt also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Blue Jays defense ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Detroit Tigers vs. Colorado Rockies - Casey Mize vs. Kyle Freeland - Expect the Detroit Tigers to sustain their high level of play on offense as they face off against Colorado’s Kyle Freeland who averages nearly two runners on base per Inning Pitched and a defense who ranks 30th overall in Defensive Efficiency and 27th in Fielding Percentage.

• Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins - Dean Kremer vs. Bailey Ober - Positive regression looms large over the Minnesota Twins offense as they face off against Baltimore’s Dean Kremer who currently averages an ERA of 5.73, a WHIP of 1.381, a FIP of 5.13, and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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