Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Brewers Offense

With Jameson Taillon on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Milwaukee Brewers offense as the Chicago Cubs pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees as a pair of productive arms are set to take the mound while surrounded by two back ends who thrive in coverage.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Props Today.

Odds provided by Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook. Bet $5 and instantly receive $150 in bonus bets in the form of six $25 bets.

If classic sportsbooks are not available in your state, try one of the best social sportsbooks to get in on the MLB action. See our selection below.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs - Quinn Priester vs. Jameson Taillon (5:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-145) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Since the All Star break, the Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the more productive offenses in the league as their lineup currently ranks near the top of the board in Team Total Hits, Slugger Percentage, and in On Base Percentage. Their ability to make contact at a consistent rate has helped them in their efforts of scoring as the Brewers also rank top-10 in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored.

In a NL Central divisional matchup against Milwaukee, negative regression looms large over the Brewers offense as they face off against Jameson Taillon who excels at avoiding contact. In his 23 starts, Taillon is averaging an ERA of 3.68, a WHIP of 1.057, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Taillon is also surrounded by a very productive back end as the Cubs defense ranks top-5 in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Quinn Priester draws a tough matchup as the Cubs offense ranks above league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Fortunately for Priester, the Brewers pitcher possesses more than enough arm talent to neutralize the Cubs offense as he takes the mound averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Win a $5 Wager at Hard Rock Bet and Get $150 in Bonus Bets

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees - Louis Varland vs. Cam Schlittler (7:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

It was a dominant playoff debut for Cam Schlittler as the New York Yankees rookie pitcher held the Boston Red Sox to just five Hits and zero Earned Runs while generating 12 Strikeouts in game three of the wildcard round. A performance that mirrored his regular season results as Schlittler finished his 2025 campaign averaging an ERA of 2.96, a FIP of 3.74, and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Every bit of his individual production will be needed against Toronto as he faces off against a Blue Jays offense who ranks top-5 in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage. Luckily for Schlittler, his back end helps reduce the amount of variance with their coverage which increases his chances of keeping a clean sheet as the Yankees defense ranks eighth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

As for Louis Varland, the Blue Jays pitcher will have the opportunity to generate a high volume of Whiffs as he faces off against a Yankees offense who ranks 28th in Strikeout Rate. Especially with Varland in full control of his command as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 2.97 and a WHIP of 1.197. With both pitchers in a position to get off to a hot start, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

Claim $150 in Bonuses at Hard Rock With a $5 Winning Wager

Best YRFI Bets Today

• Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers - Bryce Miller vs. Casey Mize - With Bryce Miller averaging an ERA of 5.68 and nearly two runners on base per inning, expect his struggles on the mound to continue to persist as he faces off against a Detroit Tigers offense who ranks above league average in Contact Rate and in Slugger Percentage.

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Aaron Nola vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Expect the reigning World Series champions to open up the scoring early in their contest against the Philadelphia Phillies as they face off against Aaron Nola who is averaging an ERA of 6.01 and a back end who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Defensive Efficiency.