Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Blue Jays Offense to Continue to Struggle

After severely underwhelming in game one, the Toronto Blue Jays struggles at the plate are poised to persist as they face off against Logan Gilbert who excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers as negative regression looms large over both offenses with a pair of productive pitchers on the mound.

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Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays - Logan Gilbert vs. Trey Yesavage (5:03 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After neutralizing the Detroit Tigers offense in game five of the ALDS, the Seattle Mariners were able to carry over their momentum into game one of the ALCS as they held the Toronto Blue Jays high powered offense to just one run in their 3-1 win. Bryce Mitchell was instrumental in their success as the Mariners starting pitcher finished the contest with just one Earned Run and two Hits Allowed. 

Heading into Monday, the Blue Jays struggles on offense will be on full display as they are set to face off against Logan Gilbert who is currently averaging an ERA of 3.44, a WHIP of 1.031, and a FIP of 3.35. Gilbert’s back end also excels in coverage which helps shorten the gaps in their outfield as the Mariners defense ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, the AL East division champions are expected to turn to Trey Yesavage who has excelled at keeping opposing runners out of scoring position this season. While the sample size is small, Yesavage’s metrics are still eye popping as he takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.21, a FIP of 2.35, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

With the Mariners offense ranking below league average in Team Total Hits, expect Yesavage to continue to generate Whiffs at a high rate and shut down the top of their order. Especially with his back end reducing the amount of variance in his outings as the Blue Jays rank above league average in Defensive Efficiency.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Blake Snell vs. Quinn Priester (8:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

While Milwaukee has yet to confirm who their pitcher is for game one of the NLCS, it has been reported the Brewers are leaning towards starting Quinn Priester to kick off the series. When in full control of his command, Priester has been a reliable arm for the Brewers as he takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.32 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

Even with the Los Angeles Dodgers offense ranking near the top of the board in Contact Rate, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage, Priester possesses more than enough arm talent to neutralize the top of their order. Especially with his back end limiting the Dodgers chances of getting on base by an error as the Brewers defense ranks top-10 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

As for Blake Snell, the former Cy Young winner also draws a tough assignment as he faces off against a Brewers offense who also ranks above league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Fortunately for the reigning World Series winners, Snell has been able to sustain his high level of play on the mound this season as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 2.35 and FIP of 2.70.

Snell is also supported by a back end who thrives in coverage which increases his chances of keeping the Brewers off the bases as the Dodgers defense ranks top-10 in Fielding Percentage. With both pitchers projected to get off to a hot start, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning of their contest. Should the Brewers deploy their bullpen instead of starting Priester, then reduce the size of your wager.

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