Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Over the Houston Astros

Heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers, negative regression looms large over the Houston Astros, battling it out against Troy Melton who excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, Ryne Nelson has a great opportunity to round back into form by taking advantage of the Los Angeles Angels struggles on offense.

Looking for more MLB betting insights? Check our selection of the Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today.

Best NRFI Bets for Monday, June 15

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Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros - Troy Melton vs. Kai-Wei Teng (8:10 PM, EST)

The Houston Astros are poised to fall hard back down to reality against the Detroit Tigers as they face off against Troy Melton and a back end who thrives in coverage.

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the Houston Astros are in fourth place in the AL West, their offense has been dominant during their slow start to the season, ranking above league average in Hit Rate, On Base Percentage, and in OPS. Their contact rate helps them consistently advance their runners into scoring position as they also reside in the top-15 in Runs Scored and in RBIs. Consequently, this underlying statistical upside keeps their AL West odds highly competitive despite the early deficit.

Unfortunately for the Astros, their offense will struggle to get out of the gate against the Detroit Tigers as they face off against Troy Melton who is averaging an ERA of 2.81 while giving up less than one Hit Against per inning. Especially with Melton’s back end lowering the probability of getting burned by an Error, surrounding him with a group who ranks 11th in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Kai-Wei Teng has also been able to play at a high level, averaging an ERA of 3.71. With the Tigers hovering near the bottom of the board in Hit Rate, expect Teng to continue to create Whiffs at a high rate and keep a clean sheet in the first inning.

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Walbert Urena vs Ryne Nelson (9:40 PM, EST)

Expect no Runs to be scored in the first inning with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks underwhelming lineups facing off against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

Under 0.5 Run (+100) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It has been a turbulent past few weeks of play for Ryne Nelson as the Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 5.19 in 14 starts. A fluky start to the year when factoring in how well Nelson excels at avoiding contact, generating less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched during that span.

In a favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, expect Nelson to break out of his slump by exploiting an offense who sits near the bottom of the board in Contact Rate while leading the league in Strikeout Rate. Especially with his back end narrowing the width of their gaps in the outfield with their coverage, fielding a defense who ranks fourth in Defensive Efficiency.

Locked into a pitchers duel with Nelson, Walbert Urena is in a great position to match his opponents output by shutting down a Diamondbacks offense who also grades out poorly in Hit Rate. With Arizona incapable of stringing together their Hits, Urena will be able to keep them out of scoring position by neutralizing their bats at the plate and exit the first inning without giving up a Run.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Nick Martinez vs. Eric Lauer - Expect the Tampa Bay Rays to open up the scoring in the first inning against the reigning World Series champions by attacking an arm who is averaging a FIP of 6.47 while generating less than one Strikeout per inning. A strong early offensive push from Tampa Bay could even cause a ripple in the current World Series odds for both of these competitive clubs.

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics - Jared Jones vs. J.T Ginn - The Athletics are in a favorable position to get on base from the opening pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates as they face off against Jared Jones who is averaging a WHIP of 1.425 and a defense who struggles in coverage per their bottom five mark in Fielding Percentage.

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