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Best NRFI/YRFI Bet This Weekend, October 21-22

Written by: Michael Savio
Published October 21, 2023
11 min read
Astros vs Rangers Predictions

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 0.5 Runs (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

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The Diamondbacks had a thrilling comeback last night to tie the series at 2-2. Momentum has swung towards Arizona as they returned home, and they will look to keep it going tonight. We like the NRFI bet to hit for the third straight game in this series. One reason is that Chase Field is a tricky park to hit in, and these offenses have taken time to adjust. Combine that with both teams having their aces on the mound, and you can see why we are locking this bet in.

Zac Gallen will get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight. The ace was solid in his first two playoff starts, but the Phillies shelled him on Monday. While that is some cause for concern, we chalk it up to that game being played in front of a rowdy Philly crowd. Gallen will be much more comfortable at home, looking more like the Cy Young candidate he was during the regular season.

The Phillies will have Zack Wheeler on the mound for this crucial road game. He has been fantastic during the postseason, with a 2.37 ERA across three starts (19 innings) and zero runs allowed in the first inning. One of those starts came against the D-Backs, where he allowed two runs on three hits across six innings. As well as Arizona’s offense played last night, we see them hitting a brick wall in the first inning tonight. 

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

Over 0.5 runs (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

We’re not sure who will come out on top of this elimination game, but we know there will be fireworks early on. Both offenses have seen the ball well, with all but one game totaling at least nine runs. These teams have scored a first-inning run in three games during the series. Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager have been red hot, and they are getting a lot of support from the rest of their lineups. 

Nathan Eovaldi will be on the hill for the Rangers tonight, which is good news for the Astros. Jose Altuve (.683 slugging percentage in 41 at-bats), Yordan Alvarez (.692 BA in 13 at-bats), and Alex Bregman (.409 BA, .818 slugging percentage in 22 at-bats) have all done well against Eovaldi and will be at the top of this Houston lineup. The Rangers starter has been good in the postseason but dipped a bit when he allowed three runs across six innings in Game 2 of the series. Houston is swinging the bat much better than they were in that game, and we think it leads to quick damage for the Rangers’ starter.

The Astros will have Framber Valdez on the mound tonight. The ace was once a favorite to win the AL Cy Young, but he fell apart late in the season. He has been shelled in the playoffs, allowing ten runs (nine earned) and 14 hits across seven innings. He started against the Rangers on Monday, allowing four runs to score in the first inning alone. We see a similar performance tonight, as this slump began far before the playoffs. He has a 13.39 ERA across his last four starts, a trend we will capitalize on tonight. 

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

467 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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