Best YRFI Bets Today: Back These Two Saturday YRFIs

It may not be pretty, but Saturday’s installment of our daily YRFI piece features the lowly Chicago White Sox in an effort for them to turn around their offensive woes. Luckily for us, the Tampa Bay Rays may just cash it in themselves, but the White Sox will have a chance to score one early against the struggling Aaron Civale. For more information about the YRFI market and what factors into them being worth a wager, you can read it here.

As for where to wager on YRFIs, our FanDuel sportsbook review highlights why they have been the pioneer for the market, as they routinely put out lines before anyone else and at very favorable odds when compared to the rest of the mobile sportsbooks. If you have not signed up yet with the FanDuel sportsbook and are looking to get in on the action, they will give you $250 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and winning your first bet of at least $5 wagered.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves - Tanner Bibee vs. Charlie Morton (7:20 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (-130) at FanDuel

If the first YRFI of our day sounds familiar, it’s because we backed this same matchup on Friday. The Guardians cashed our previous YRFI in the top of the first, now looking to capture lightning twice in a bottle by backing them against in this matchup with two more struggling pitchers set to take the mound.

The Guardians are in a position to bring one in early for the second day in a row as the Braves Charlie Morton has had a forgettable start to his 2024 campaign. Morton comes into the contest with an ERA of 4.70, a WHIP of 1.261, 22 strikeouts, 19 hits allowed, 10 batters walked, and 12 earned runs against in just four games played.

His high walk rate in his minimal appearances is especially intriguing to fade against, especially since the Guardians' offensive success stems from their ability to make contact rather than getting walked. Cleveland’s offense ranks in the top 10 in total hits while their walk rate drops down to as low as the sixth worst. Expect Morton’s lack of command to compliment an offense that relies solely on their ability to make contact, presenting them extra opportunities to get on base and in scoring position.

As for the Braves, their elite offense gets another opportunity to flex their elite batting prowess against the Guardians' Tanner Bibee, who boasts even worse metrics than his opponent Charlie Morton. Bibee rolls into the contest with an ERA of 4.44, a WHIP of 1.603, 26 strikeouts, 27 hits allowed, 12 batters walked, and 12 earned runs against in five games played.

His high WHIP rate indicates that opposing offenses nearly average two batters on base per inning, creeping into scoring position with a man on second. That spells potential doom against one of the best batting lineups in baseball, one that features former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr, utility man Austin Riley, and powerhouse Matt Olson at the top of their order.

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox - Aaron Civale vs. Jonathan Cannon (7:10 PM, EST)

Over 0.5 Run (+105) at FanDuel

It’s not exactly settling on the stomach at the thought of backing the worst offense in the league, but positive regression looms large with their batting production as they get the benefit of going against the Rays Aaron Civale.

Civale was a previous fade target earlier in the season and has maintained his low level of play by entering the contest with an ERA of 3.90, a WHIP of 1.229, 31 strikeouts, 25 hits allowed, nine batters walked, and 12 earned runs against in five games played. Like the same ideology in the previously mentioned matchup, his high walk rate presents the lowly White Sox batters extra opportunities to get on base and in scoring position.

While the White Sox rounding back into form would be ideal, the Rays may not need their help as they will be in a great position to take advantage of Jonathan Cannon who has had a nightmare start to his season. In just two games played, Cannon has racked up an ERA of 7.27 and a WHIP of 1.615. 

That bodes well for the Rays who have had their ups and downs, ranking well above average in total hits yet below average in on-base percentage. Going against Cannon’s lack of command, they should have no issue regressing back towards their expected mean with batters finding themselves routinely on base.

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