Brewers vs Pirates Odds: Brewers Looking to Cushion NL Central Lead

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 6, 2023
4 min read
  • The Brewers have won nine of Freddy Peralta’s last ten starts
  • Peralta has a 2.00 ERA since August 1
  • Mitch Keller has allowed 12 earned runs across ten innings against Milwaukee this season

Brewers vs Pirates Odds

Odds Courtesy of BetMGM. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities! 

TeamRun LineTotalMoneyline

Brewers

-1.5 (-115)
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Over 8.5 (-115)
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-190
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Pirates

+1.5 ( -105)
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Under 8.5 (-105)
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+155
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Brewers vs Pirates Pick

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Brewers vs Pirates Predictions

Brewers vs Pirates Predictions

While the Pirates will have their ace on the mound tonight, it won’t be enough to overcome Freddy Peralta and this Brewers team. Peralta has been one of the best starters over the last month, and the Milwaukee offense has been a different animal in the second half of the season. The Brewers have a lot to play for, with the Cubs chasing them in the Central. They need every win they can get against teams like the Pirates, and they will do just that tonight. 

Milwaukee Brewers Predictions

The Brewers continue to fend off a charge from the Cubs over the last month. They lost a pivotal series to Chicago last week, dropping two games by two combined runs. The team responded with a big series win against the Phillies, and they will add another one today. Look for their bats to stay hot against a Pirates starter they have crushed this season, scoring enough runs to support another stellar start from Freddy Peralta. 

Freddy Peralta (11-8, 3.85 ERA) will get the start for Milwaukee tonight, which is bad news for Pittsburgh. The former All-Star was terrible for the first two months of the season, but things have turned around since. Peralta has a 2.00 ERA since August 1 and has allowed more than three earned runs just once since June 11. The Pirates were able to hit Peralta back in June, but this is a very different pitcher. That can be seen by looking at his last ten starts, where the Brewers are 9-1. The Pirates don’t have the offense to beat a pitcher who has been this good, so look for a lopsided loss today.

While Milwaukee’s defense and pitching are a big reason for their NL Central lead, their bats have held the red-hot Cubs at bay. The team’s average in the second half is 12 points better than the first, and they have scored at least seven runs in three of their last five games. On top of that, they will be facing a Pirates pitcher they have tagged for 14 hits and 12 runs over just ten innings. Look for the Crew to hang another considerable number on the Pirates today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions

There was a brief time when the Pirates sat atop the NL Central standings, but those days are long over. While Pittsburgh has enjoyed an easy schedule of late, they ran into a brick wall in Milwaukee last night. Things won’t be any easier today, as they will face off against the hottest pitcher in baseball. Look for the Pirates to struggle to get any offense going, falling victim to a Brewers team in one of the tightest division races in the league.

The good news for the Pirates is that they will have ace Mitch Keller (11-8, 3.93 ERA) on the mound. The bad news is that the 27-year-old has been shelled by the Brewers twice this season. While the righty has been fantastic over his last four starts, that won’t matter against a Milwaukee team with a .280 batting average against Keller. Look for him to get in trouble early and be forced to work through it, thanks to the Pirates burning through two long-relievers last night. Keller is a nice pitcher but is in store for an awful afternoon.

While the Pirates lineup has been better of late, they still rank in the bottom seven of the league in runs scored and batting average. We’ll be watching 22-year-old Liover Peguero today, as the young shortstop has been red hot. He has a .435 batting average over the last week, which is even more impressive because it came during a long road trip. We like his chances to become an essential part of this team, but he and the rest of this Pirates lineup will be left baffled by Peralta today.

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How to Watch Brewers vs Pirates

  • What: Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates
  • When: September 6 at 12:35 PM EST
  • Where: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • How to Watch: MLB.tv
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Michael Savio

Sports Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Gambling News
MLB
NCAAB
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
Experience:
3 years
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