Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Cashing in On Alvarez’s Home Cooking

Yordan Alvarez has made himself an AL MVP candidate in 2026, thanks largely to his historic success at home. He’ll be returning home tonight to face a struggling young Brewers’ pitcher, setting him up to continue his impressive campaign.

We’ll share more on why we’re betting on him to go deep, along with two other home run predictions from today’s slate of games.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Saturday, May 30

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Home Run Picks for Saturday, May 30

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on. 

Yordan Alvarez Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

We have been locking in on Yordan Alvarez for many of our home run predictions this season, and for good reason. The 28-year-old is second in the league with 20 home runs, and five of which came in Houston’s 4-game series against Texas earlier this week. His hot bet gives us plenty of confidence to back him to go deep tonight, but it isn’t the only reason.

Alvarez has been thriving when playing at home in 2026. Over 92 at-bats, he owns an impressive .359 average and 1.198 slugging percentage. Those numbers drop massively on the road, showing how much the veteran star enjoys Daikin Park, where he’ll be facing the Brewers today.

Milwaukee’s starting rotation has been fantastic, with the exception of rookie Brandon Sproat (1-3, 5.84 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). While he has flashed some impressive stuff, the 25-year-old is struggling to miss bats. While he’s only allowed two home runs in May, that’s due to his short starts, combining for only 18 innings.

The Brewers' bullpen has impressive stats, but they have shown some uncharacteristic struggles late in games. That means Alvarez will be a threat each time he steps to the plate, regardless of who is on the mound for Milwaukee. 

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Miguel Vargas Anytime Home Run (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook

One of the most surprising stories of the 2026 season has been the Chicago White Sox, and Miguel Vargas is a big reason why. The 26-year-old already has 12 home runs, putting him on pace to easily surpass the 16 he posted last season. Given that Chicago’s lineup now offers far more protection and the third baseman is hitting right in its heart, Vargas has become a far more tempting home run bet.

While Vargas is off to a solid start, his success has almost come exclusively against left-handed pitchers. He’s batting .328 over 58 at-bats against southpaws, accounting for seven of his 12 home runs. With Detroit sending a lefty out to the mound today, we expect that success to continue.

The Tigers will have Framber Valdez (2-3, 4.28 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) starting this game. The 32-year-old lefty looked great in his last start, but has struggled badly overall this month. That has us willing to bet against him and back the young White Sox slugger tonight.

Surprisingly, Valdez does not find memories of Chicago’s Rate Field. When he started there last season against a far worse Sox lineup, Valdez allowed four runs, one home run, and seven hits over five innings. With Chicago now contending for the AL Central, don’t expect Valdez to turn things around today. 

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Michael Harris II Anytime Home Run (+320) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Braves have several solid home run prop bets available, but we believe Michael Harris II is the best bet. The 25-year-old is having the best season of his impressive young career, batting .301 while smacking 13 home runs. Six of those long balls have come since May 15, showing the left-handed hitter has found his power stroke.

Harris is a solid home run bet often, but there is an extra incentive to take him on the road. The outfielder is batting .362 and has posted ten of his 12 long balls when away from Atlanta. That includes Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, where he went 4-9 last season.

The reason we locked in on Braves’ sluggers for our final bet is Red’s starter Brady Singer (2-4, 6.26 ERA, 1.70 WHIP). The righty has been bad this season, and his inability to keep the ball in the park is a big reason why. The issue hasn’t been a problem for him in the past, with a career high of 22 in 2024. However, he’s already allowed 14 this season, putting him on pace to shatter that record in 2026.

Singer has allowed three home runs in two consecutive games and nine across 17 innings pitched in May. Things won’t get much harder for Harris once Singer exits, as the struggling Reds’ bullpen ranks in the bottom five of the league in ERA (4.92) and home runs (32).

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