AL Central Winner Odds 2024: Twins to Make a Second Half Surge

• The Cleveland Guardians head into the halfway point of the season with a 4.5 game lead for first 

• The Guardians have the second hardest strength of schedule post All-Star break

• The Minnesota Twins are steadily closing the gap on the Guardians after a hot stretch of play

After starting the year with a sizable lead for first place in the AL Central division standings, the Cleveland Guardians have steadily regressed as the Minnesota Twins surge up the standings. The Twins offense has come back to life, ranking above the rest of the division across most key metrics while the Guardians offense continue to flirt with negative regression with a low mark in Team Total Hits.

To make matters worse for the Guardians, they enter the second half of the season with the second hardest remaining strength of schedule. Should they struggle with a tougher schedule, then that opens the door for the surging Twins to jump over them at favorable odds. As for the rest of the division, the Kansas City Royals have crashed down to seven games back after a cold stretch of play while the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are both 12 games back or more from first place.

MLB AL Central Winner Odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM sportsbook. Use our code WSNMGM at BetMGM and claim your bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets!

AL Central Predictions and Favorites to Win

Cleveland Guardians (-165) at FanDuel

Normally a routine team for us to back as we continued to make mid-season wagers on their discounted odds, the Cleveland Guardians now enter the second half of the year as a fade target. Especially since their offense continues to flirt with negative regression, ranking well below league average in Team Total Hits while maximizing on their minimal scoring opportunities with high marks in RBIs and Runs Scored.

Should negative regression come back to bite them, then the Guardians are in serious jeopardy of losing their lead at the top of the AL Central standings. Especially since their back half of the schedule ramps up in quality of opponent, having the second hardest remaining strength of schedule. Their impressive ranks in Team Total Pitching ERA and Defensive Efficiency are not enough to maintain their lead, desperately needing more offensive production to finish the year out strong.

Bet on Cleveland Guardians (-165) at FanDuel 

Kansas City Royals (+1000) at FanDuel

After inching their way towards the top spot of the AL Central standings, the Kansas City Royals offense went through a horrific cold stretch and crashed back down the board. Now firmly in third place and seven games back from first, the Royals once again have to climb back up the standings after a strong start to their season.

Should they want to do so, then their offense will need to recapture the same magic that they had at the start of the year. Entering the second half of the season, the Royals rank well below league average in On Base Percentage while their RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and Team Total Hits dip to league average. Average isn’t enough to contend for the division title, especially when their defense ranks below league average in Defensive Efficiency. Fade the Royals' division futures until their offense rounds back into form.

Bet on Kansas City Royals (+1000) at FanDuel 

Detroit Tigers (+25000) at Caesars

Outside of current AL Cy Young betting favorite Tarik Skubal, the Detroit Tigers are deprived of consistent productive talent. That has been the case all season long for the Tigers, ranking well below league average in offensive On Base Percentage, RBIs, Team Total Hits, Total Runs Scored, and Defensive Efficiency.

Now 12 games back from first, the Tigers are put in a less-than-ideal spot of whether they should be buyers or sellers as we near the trade deadline. Skubal’s name has made the rounds as an intriguing trade target, indicating that the Tigers would be throwing in the towel on their season by trading away their star ace pitcher. With uncertainty surrounding the Tigers ballclub, avoid their astronomically high division title odds as a hedge piece to our previous positions.

Bet on Detroit Tigers (+25000) at Caesars 

Chicago White Sox (+100000) at BetMGM

While the Tigers can still salvage their season by being aggressive as we near the deadline, the Chicago White Sox are better off looking towards the offseason as they are a lost cause this year. They simply do not excel at any key area of the field, ranking well below league average in offensive Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, and Defensive Efficiency.

Their pitching staff has managed to climb up to near league average in Team Total Pitching ERA off the brilliant play of Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, but their play alone is not enough to mask the anemic White Sox defense. At 32.5 games back from first and a realistic chance of finishing with the worst record in the league, the White Sox are a clear fade in any division title futures markets.

Bet on Chicago White Sox (+100000) at BetMGM 

Who Will Win the AL Central Division?

My Pick - Minnesota Twins (+200) at BetMGM

With negative regression looming over the Guardians offense, as well as having the second hardest remaining strength of schedule, now is the time to hedge our portfolio by taking their closest contender in the Minnesota Twins. The preseason favorites have managed to round back into form after a rough start to their year, now entering the All Star break only 4.5 games back from first.

Should they want to make the leap over the Guardians for first place, then their offense will need to continue to play at a high rate as they currently rank better than the rest of the division in Team Total Hits, On Base Percentage, RBIs, and Total Runs Scored. Their pitching staff is still a cause for concern as they drop down the board in Team Total Pitching ERA, yet rumor has it they are aggressively pursuing pitching talent before the deadline. Back the Twins now before they close the gap on the Guardians.

Bet on Minnesota Twins (+200) at BetMGM 

AL Central History

The AL Central has been dominated by the Minnesota Twins as of late, winning the division title in three of the past five years. They even opened as the favorite to win it this season, but have quickly fallen down the board after a lackluster start to the year. 

That has opened the door for the Cleveland Guardians to make it two division wins in three years while the Kansas City Royals trail behind them. Should the Royals manage to leap over the Guardians, that would mark their first division title since they won it back in 2015. As for the Tigers and White Sox, their division title drought looks to continue as they trickle down the standings.

Previous AL Central Winners

How to Read AL Central Division Odds

When making any type of wager, it’s important to know how to read the listed odds. Especially for a favorite like the Cleveland Guardians as the minus sign (-) indicates that you would need to tie in $165 to win $100 at -165 odds. Should you like one of the underdogs instead like the Minnesota Twins at +200, then a $100 wager would profit you $200 should they win the AL Central.

How to Choose the Best Sportsbook for Betting on the AL Central Division

Having access to multiple online sportsbooks is important in more ways than one. Each book has their own listed odds, giving you the ability to line shop. That is especially vital when wagering on a favorite like the Guardians, getting them anywhere from -165 at FanDuel Sportsbook, to -185 at Caesars Sportsbook. That is a difference of $20 in a tied up wager while returning the same amount of profit. 

Each book also has their own unique new user sign up bonus, giving their users a huge head start with bonus bets heading into the start of the MLB regular season. Caesars Sportsbook for example is giving new users $1,000 back in bonus bets if they lose their first wager after creating an account and making a deposit.

*Bonus Bets Expire in 7 Days. One New Customer Offer Only. Add’l terms.

Check Out Other MLB Division Futures

• AL East Winner 2024

• AL West Winner 2024 

• NL East Winner 2024 

• NL Central Winner 2024

• NL West Winner 2024