Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Finding Value in a Packed Schedule

With a limited schedule on Monday, we targeted some of the obvious candidates and hit on two of our four picks. But with a full MLB schedule on Tuesday, we’ll take a different approach. With more options, we took a deep dive in search of high-value picks. We didn’t necessarily make the obvious choices, but we feel good about our home run picks for Tuesday.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, July 7

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, July 7

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Zach Neto Anytime Home Run (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Neto is on the verge of reaching 20 home runs before the All-Star break. He went 5 for 13 with a home run over the weekend and now has two home runs and three multi-hit games over his last six games. Neto also has a surprisingly good matchup on Tuesday against Jacob deGrom, going 5 for 10 with two doubles and two home runs in his career against deGrom.

It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s still an impressive amount of power against a pitcher like deGrom. Keep in mind that deGrom has already allowed 16 home runs this season. His stuff has diminished just enough that power hitters can take him deep, which is why we don’t have to hesitate to target a hitter who’s facing him.

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Kerry Carpenter Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Carpenter also has impressive numbers against the pitcher he’s set to face on Tuesday, albeit in a limited sample size. He’s 5 for 7 with a double against the A’s J.T. Ginn. Even without a home run against Ginn, that’s enough success to take a chance on Carpenter, who has hit all 13 of his home runs this season against right-handed pitchers.

Naturally, Ginn has been hurt more frequently by left-handed batters, who have hit six of the 10 home runs he’s allowed. While he’s pitched to a 3.04 ERA, Ginn has also allowed at least one home run in back-to-back starts. Given his past trouble getting Carpenter out, it’s worth taking a chance on Detroit’s overlooked outfielder.

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Freddie Freeman Anytime Home Run (+340) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While his odds don’t look that long, Freeman is actually one of the bigger long shots on the Dodgers on Tuesday when they face Colorado’s Michael Lorenzen. The 36-year-old is going to his 10th All-Star Game and has hit 15 home runs thus far in 2026, putting him on pace for his highest total since joining the Dodgers. In other words, he shouldn’t be overlooked as a home run target.

With a 6.91 ERA, Lorenzen is bound to struggle against the Dodgers on Tuesday. Left-handed hitters are batting .365 and slugging .640 against him this season, so a left-handed batter is the best option. While Shohei Ohtani and Max Muncy are more obvious options, Freeman has more value and is just as capable of taking Lorenzen deep.

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Luis Garcia Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

On Tuesday, the Nationals will face Japanese rookie Tatsuya Imai of the Astros. It’s been a rough season in the big leagues for Imai, who has a 6.14 ERA after getting knocked out in the second inning of his last start. He’s given up eight home runs over 48.1 innings of work, most of which have been hit by left-handed hitters.

Luckily, the Nationals have several left-handed power hitters on their roster. We decided to pass on CJ Abram and James Wood in favor of Garcia, who has 19 home runs this season and offers far better value. Garcia has been red-hot lately, totaling 15 hits, including six home runs and four doubles, over his last nine games. He’s swinging a good bat and facing a vulnerable pitcher, making Garcia worth a shot.

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