Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Who to Target Against Vulnerable Lefties

As a new week of baseball begins, there’s an interesting trend to watch on Monday. There are several left-handed pitchers scheduled to start who have had horrible seasons to this point. Naturally, most have been vulnerable to the long ball, which has influenced who we are targeting with our home run props on Monday.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Monday, July 20

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Home Run Picks for Monday, July 20

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Drake Baldwin Anytime Home Run (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Baldwin has come back from the All-Star break on fire. On Sunday, he was 5 for 5 with two home runs, making him 10 for 14 with three home runs in three games since the break. It almost doesn’t matter who he’s facing right now; it’s a good idea to target Baldwin while he’s this hot.

Of course, Baldwin and the Braves should like their matchup on Monday against lefty JP Sears, who has a 5.03 ERA across his first four starts of the season. Sears has pitched just 19.2 innings across those four starts, giving up four home runs, three of which have been hit by right-handed batters. The switch-hitting Baldwin has gone deep from both sides of the plate this season, so lefty or righty, he’s always a threat to go deep.

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Curtis Mead Anytime Home Run (+350) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Mead and the Nationals begin a series at Coors Field on Monday. In addition to the thin air, they have the benefit of facing Kyle Freeland, who owns a 7.39 ERA this season. In just 88 innings pitched, Freeland has allowed 18 home runs, with 16 of those being hit by right-handed hitters.

Of course, Mead is a right-handed power hitter, making him Freeland’s kryptonite. For what it’s worth, Mead doesn’t have clear splits, although his average and slugging percentage are slightly higher against left-handed pitchers. He’s also 5 for 11 with three doubles since the All-Star break, so a home run shouldn’t be far behind, especially with a favorable matchup against Freeland.

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Ketel Marte Anytime Home Run (+255) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Outside of Freeland, Jeffrey Springs of the A’s might be the most vulnerable starting pitcher scheduled for Monday. He’s rocking a 6.08 ERA this year, while giving up an MLB-high 26 home runs. Things are getting worse for the lefty, as Springs has allowed multiple home runs in six of his last seven starts. On the season, right-handed batters are responsible for 20 of those 26 home runs.

Obviously, we have to target someone on the Diamondbacks to hit a home run, and the switch-hitting Marte is the best option. To be fair, he’s just 0 for 3 in his career against Springs. But Springs has rarely been as bad as he’s been this year. Marte has 17 home runs on the season, seven coming against lefties in fewer than 100 at-bats. He’s slugging .588 against southpaws, making Marte a great matchup against Springs.

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Bryan Reynolds Anytime Home Run (+500) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Ryan Weathers of the Yankees isn’t nearly as bad as some of the other lefties starting on Monday. However, he’s allowed 16 home runs in 97.2 innings this year, something that’s easy to overlook with his 4.15 ERA. Most of those home runs have come while pitching at home, with 13 of the 16 being hit by right-handed batters.

While the Pirates don’t have a lot of obvious home run targets, the switch-hitting Reynolds offers great value. In a small sample size, he’s 3 for 4 with two doubles in his career against Weathers, so he’s had success and displayed some power against the southpaw. Plus, Reynolds is batting .306 with a .537 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers this year, so his chances of going deep increase when facing lefties.

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