Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Buxton is Back in a Big Way

Twins fans held their breath when the oft-injured Byron Buxton hit the IL earlier this month, but their fears appear to be unwarranted. The slugger has resumed his incredible 2026 campaign since returning, continuing to serve as the heart of Minnesota’s offense.

Below, we’ll share why we believe the AL MVP candidate will go deep tonight. We’ll also share two other home run predictions we love from today’s small slate of games. His surging AL MVP odds reflect exactly why his bat is so dangerous right now.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, July 23

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Home Run Picks for Thursday, July 23

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the three players we’re locked in on.

Drake Baldwin Anytime Home Run (+400) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Braves young catcher has not disappointed halfway through his sophomore campaign. While his average once again hovers around .270, he has already registered 18 home runs, surpassing the 18 he hit during his rookie campaign.

After a brutal June where he finished with a .063 average, the 2026 All-Star catcher snapped back in a big way in July. He’s batting .333 with five home runs over his seventeen games this month. 

Baldwin and the Braves will be facing Padres starter Griffin Canning (1-8, 6.67 ERA, 1.62 WHIP) on the mound today. He’s been especially bad against left-handed hitters like Baldwin, who owns a .316 average, .939 OPS, and eight home runs this season. By comparison, Canning has allowed just one home run to right-handed hitters.

While the veteran has been better about limiting home runs since leaving the Angels in 2024, his brutal 2026 stats give us confidence to bet against him today.

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Byron Buxton Anytime Home Run (+310) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Twins star came off the IL earlier this week and didn’t show much rust. He went 3-for-7 at the plate. Though he hasn’t gone deep since returning, Buxton’s 25 home runs have him on pace to shatter his career-high total of 35. We believe he takes another step towards eclipsing that today.

One reason for that is Cleveland’s Progressive Field, where Buxton has thrived this season. In 21 at-bats, he’s posted a .429 average with two home runs and a 1.264 OPS. 

Another reason is the Guardians’ starter, Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). The righty was impressive to start the season, but consistency became a significant issue once the summer began. Since June 1, the starter owns a 5.65 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs (43 innings pitched). Three of those long balls came in his last start.

Over ten career meetings, Buxton has not homered against Williams, but has posted four hits.

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Alec Burleson Anytime Home Run (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Cardinals’ first baseman is having another strong season for the team, with a .282 average and 15 home runs on the season. The reason the 27-year-old’s numbers aren’t better is his struggles to hit southpaws, but he owns a .317 average with 13 home runs and a .938 OPS against righties. That is good news for tonight’s matchup against a struggling right-handed starter.

D-backs starter Brandson Pfaadt (4-4, 4.58 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) started the season relegated to the bullpen. While the team once had high hopes for the 27-year-old, his 5.25 ERA in 2025 was enough for the team to adjust its plans. He took over a spot in the rotation at the end of June and has gone 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA, but his career numbers suggest results from the short sample size won’t last. 

Pfaadt has been especially bad against left-handed hitters, who own a .298 average and eight home runs.

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