Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Overlook the Usual Suspects to Find Massive Value

Friday is a day for deep thinking and high value. For the most part, we’ve ignored the top power hitters in the game and the usual suspects for home run targets. Instead, we’ve found hitters who have some pop but also have favorable matchups on Friday. That’s allowed us to find home run props with tons of value and upside.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Friday, July 24

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Home Run Picks for Friday, July 24

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Brice Turang Anytime Home Run (+500) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Most days, Turang is far from having the shortest odds of anyone on the Brewers to hit a home run. Yet, he’s second on the team in home runs and has the highest slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers. Turang is slugging .517 against righties, with 13 of his 14 home runs coming against them.

Those stats give him great value with +500 odds on Friday, as the Brewers face Tomoyuki Sugano. Despite a somewhat respectable 4.76 ERA, Sugano gets hammered by lefties, who are slugging .586 against him and are responsible for 12 of the 18 home runs he’s allowed this year. He’s the exact type of pitcher that Turang crushes, making this a favorable matchup for Milwaukee’s second baseman.

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Tommy Edman Anytime Home Run (+520) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Sean Manaea has plenty of dangerous hitters to worry about when he faces the Dodgers on Friday. However, Edman might be the biggest threat he faces. While it’s only a small sample size, Edman is 4 for 5 with a double and two home runs against Manaea. No matter how small the sample size, that’s enough to get our attention.

It’s also worth mentioning that Manaea has given up two home runs in each of his three outings in July. He’s been pitching better, but he also remains vulnerable to the long ball. On the season, right-handed hitters have hit nine of the 12 home runs he’s allowed, while slugging .512 against him. That’s another advantage for the switch-hitting Edman, who has at least one hit in 10 of his last 11 games with four extra-base hits during that stretch, so he’s red-hot at the moment.

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Liam Hicks Anytime Home Run (+750) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The odds Hicks is getting to go deep on Friday are insane, especially considering he leads the Marlins in home runs this year. Of his 14 home runs, 13 have come against right-handed pitchers, and on Miami’s roster, only Griffin Conine has a better slugging percentage against righties. That makes him Miami’s best candidate to go deep against German Marquez on Friday.

Marquez has allowed 11 home runs in just 44.2 innings this season. If he’d been pitching all season, he’d probably lead the majors in home runs allowed. Not surprisingly, left-handed hitters have crushed him, hitting eight of those 11 home runs and slugging .603 against Marquez. Hicks is also 2 for 3 in his career against Marquez, so further success on Friday wouldn’t be a surprise.

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Ryan Jeffers Anytime Home Run (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Even with just nine home runs on the season, Jeffers is a great target for Friday. For starters, he’s 4 for 18 with two home runs since the All-Star break, so he’s found a nice groove over the last week and has started to find his power stroke. He’s also 2 for 5 with a home run in his career against Jacob Lopez, who starts for the A’s.

Lopez is rocking a 6.64 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs in 59.2 innings, so he’s a great pitcher to bet against when finding home run targets. Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage, hitting nine of those 11 home runs and slugging .536 against him. The Minnesota lineup is heavy on lefties, making Jeffers a surprisingly good power option.

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