Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Left-Handed Sluggers Paired with Homer-Prone Pitchers

Tuesday is one of those days when it looks like the stars are aligned. There are several starting pitchers on the mound who we know are vulnerable to the long ball. At the same time, there are several left-handed sluggers set to face those pitchers who we know are always a threat to go deep. The math is rather simple after that, which is why we’ve targeted some obvious candidates instead of trying to outsmart the room.

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Best Home Run Predictions for Tuesday, August 4

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Home Run Picks for Tuesday, August 4

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Tyler Soderstrom Anytime Home Run (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Brady Singer is the first pitcher we’re projecting to give up at least one home run on Tuesday night. While he started to pitch better in July, he’s still given up 21 home runs on the season. Of those 21 home runs, 15 have been hit by left-handed hitters, who are slugging .498 against him, which made it easier to pick someone on the A’s to target.

We landed on Soderstrom, in part because Nick Kurtz is dealing with an injury. But Soderstrom is a legitimate power source as well, mashing 17 home runs on the season. He’s done most of that damage against right-handed pitchers and should benefit from a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ballpark.

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Kyle Schwarber Anytime Home Run (+162) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Admittedly, we’re not going to win points for creativity by targeting Schwarber. We’re also not going to get a ton of value with Schwarber, who already has 33 home runs this season. Oddly enough, he hasn’t hit a home run since July 18, but that means he’s due for one, especially with Zack Littell on the mound for the Nationals. 

Schwarber has just three career at-bats against Littell, although one of those was a home run. More importantly, Littell has allowed 25 home runs this season in just 105.2 innings of work. Left-handed hitters, in particular, have hit 18 home runs against him, while slugging .552, making it all the more likely that Schwarber can end his home run drought against Littell.

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Max Muncy Anytime Home Run (+300) at FanDuel Sportsbook

All eyes will be on Tarik Skubal as he makes his Dodgers debut at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. But we’ll be watching Muncy, who has four home runs since the All-Star break, giving him 21 on the season. He’s 16 of those against right-handed pitchers, giving him a good matchup on Tuesday against Javier Assad.

For what it’s worth, Muncy hit a home run in his only career at-bat against Assad, who has also walked Muncy twice, so he’s a little afraid of him. While Assad hasn’t been as bad as some pitchers at giving up the long ball, he’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last eight starts. Left-handed hitters have done most of that damage, putting Muncy in a good spot.

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Corbin Carroll Anytime Home Run (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Carroll is another one of those left-handed hitters who tends to unleash his power against right-handed pitchers. While his power has been limited lately, 12 of his 16 home runs this year have come against righties. He’s also 5 for 12 with three doubles in his career against Randy Vasquez, who starts against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday.

Vasquez has been trending in the wrong direction since the end of May, struggling to go deep in games and giving up the occasional long ball. Left-handed hitters are batting .318 with a .525 slugging percentage against him. Those numbers don’t bode well for him against a hitter like Corbin, especially given his strong track record against Vasquez.

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