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Our Pick: Red Sox -1.5
The Yankees got hot at the end of August, but things have again cooled off for this offense. That is going to be a problem against the Red Sox tonight, especially with Clarke Schmidt on the mound. Expect the pitcher to get walloped as the Yankees continue to attempt to figure out Tanner Houck, leading to a lopsided win for Boston.
New York sports have officially hit an all-time low, and the Yankees are no exception. Their hopes are to win the AL East are long over, and they now sit 7.5 games out of a wildcard spot. They were able to get hot at the end of August, but that was due more to their pitching than an actual offensive surge. New York’s pitching, especially Clarke Schmidt, isn’t good enough to keep that up for long. Look for New York’s sports misery to get even worse after a loss to Boston tonight.
Clarke Schmidt (9-8, 4.54 ERA) has taken a step back since joining the Yankees rotation this season. He isn’t lasting deep into games and owns a bad 1.32 WHIP. Schmidt has a 5.00 ERA since August 1 and a 5.29 ERA on the road this season. While Boston’s offense isn’t elite, they have been scoring more runs than New York all season. Look for them to get to Schmidt early, supporting their own starting pitcher en route to a win.
The Yankee offense has been a major disappointment in 2023. They are twenty-ninth in the league in batting average and twenty-fourth in runs scored. Given their pitching, those numbers haven’t been good enough to translate into wins this year. They have scored more than three runs just once in their last six games, and we see a similar performance tonight against a Boston pitcher who has had their number.
The Red Sox did not come into the season with high expectations, making their season a pleasant surprise. While they are still 6.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, they have looked like the better team in this rivalry. They will capitalize on a chance to beat their rivals once more before the end of the season, leading to a big win in Boston.
The Sox will have Tanner Houck (4-9, 5.28 ERA) on the mound tonight. While his season numbers are ugly, he has a history of success against the Yankees. He has faced them twice this season, posting a 2.70 ERA across ten innings. Houck has had success thanks to several key Yankee bats being unable to figure him out. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, and Anthony Volpe all have career averages under .190 against Houck. We don’t see that changing in Boston tonight, especially now that the Yankees season is all but over.
The Boston offense has been good in 2023. They are second in the league in batting average and eighth in runs scored. While they don’t hit too many home runs, their ability to move base runners has led to their success in 2023. We will be keeping a close eye on slugging third baseman Rafael Devers, who owns a .400 average against Clarke Schmidt.
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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.More info on Michael Savio
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