AdventHealth 400 Predictions, Odds, Picks (Cup Series)

• Tyler Reddick could be the next first-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series
• Joey Logano found speed at Darlington. Will that carry over into Kansas?
• We keep waiting for Kevin Harvick to have a breakout race. Is this the week?

AdventHealth 400 Odds

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A week after Joey Logano knocked William Byron out of the way to win at Darlington, the NASCAR Cup Series visited Kansas Speedway for the first of two premier-division races this season.

Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 marks the third trip to a 1.5-mile intermediate speedway this season. The race marks the halfway point in the 26-event Cup Series regular season.

The race will be contested over 267 laps (400.5 miles) with stage breaks scheduled after 80 and 165 laps. Kyle Busch is the defending winner.

AdventHealth 400 Predictions

Tyler Reddick Looks to Be the Next First-Time Winner in the Cup Series

On April 17 at Bristol Motor Speedway’s Dirt Track, Tyler Reddick came within 300 yards of his first NASCAR Cup Series victory.

Reddick had the victory in hand until Chase Briscoe buried his Ford into the final corner and knocked Reddick’s Chevrolet sideways, handing the win to Kyle Busch.

The way we see it, though, Reddick won’t be frustrated forever, and this is likely the week he gets the job done.

No, Reddick’s record at Kansas Speedway is predictive of victory. In five Cup starts at the track, he posted no top fives and two top 10s. But there are other factors.

On the way to his two NASCAR Xfinity Series championships, Reddick scored top fives in all three of his Kansas races, including two runner-up results.

The Richard Childress Racing drivers—Reddick and Austin Dillon—have been consistently more competitive in the Next Gen car introduced this year.

And like Homestead-Miami Speedway, perhaps Reddick’s best track, Kansas is conducive to running the top of the track next to the wall. That’s Reddick’s preferred groove.

In addition, Reddick was one of three Cup drivers participating in the Goodyear tire test at Kansas on March 29. Given the limited practice on Saturday, that should give Reddick an edge on Sunday.

Reddick qualified second on Saturday and, predictably, his odds shortened to +700 via DraftKings Sportsbook, making him co-favorite with Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch and pole winner Christopher Bell. But he’s still worth a bet.

Fresh From a Victory at Darlington, Joey Logano Goes for Two Straight

Joey Logano’s dump-and-run against William Byron at Darlington generated a week’s worth of discussion, but it didn’t obscure the fact that Logano’s Ford was the fastest car on the track at the end of the race.

A week after a miserable run at Dover, Logano found speed at the Track Too Tough to Tame, and there’s no reason why that can’t carry over into the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway, historically one of his best tracks.

A three-time winner at the 1.5-mile speedway, Logano has recorded eight top fives in 25 starts at the track.

Now that he and crew chief Paul Wolfe have gotten a handle on the Next Gen car, you can expect Logano to be a contender on Sunday.

Logano will have to start from the rear in a backup car after blowing a left rear tire and crashing in Saturday’s practice. But that lengthened his odds to +2000 (DraftKings), making the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford an attractive long-shot pick at the price.

Sooner or Later, Kevin Harvick Will Have a Breakout Race. This Week, Maybe?

In his last 12 starts at Kansas Speedway, Kevin Harvick has posted seven top-three finishes. That stretch includes two of his three victories at the track and three runner-up results.

In 32 Kansas starts, Harvick has recorded an average finish of 8.9. Though he and crew chief Rodney Childers have yet to get a handle on the Next Gen car, they’re making progress—as top-10 finishes in the last three races attest.

While we don’t think Harvick will win Sunday’s race, we think he’s an excellent candidate to run top-three (+1000) and top-five (+600), despite his 23rd-place starting position. So place you bets accordingly.

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