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AdventHealth 400 Predictions: Toyotas Own the Recent History at Kansas

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated May 3, 2024
4 min read
  • Red-hot Denny Hamlin goes for NASCAR Cup Series lead in races won.

  • Kyle Larson is Chevrolet’s best chance to upset the Toyota juggernaut.

  • Bubba Wallace is a recent Kansas winner at an extremely attractive price.

AdventHealth 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click odds in the table below and claim $200 in bonus bets when wagering at least $5 at DraftKings.

Driver Odds
Kyle Larson +380
Denny Hamlin +400
Tyler Reddick +600
William Byron +700
Martin Truex Jr. +750
Christopher Bell +800
Chase Elliott +900
Ty Gibbs +1500
Bubba Wallace +1500
Ryan Blaney +2000
Ross Chastain +2200

Our Picks for the AdventHealth 400

AdventHealth 400 Predictions

AdventHealth 400 Predictions

It’s a Mistake to Discount a Supremely Confident Denny Hamlin

On the April 22nd edition of his weekly podcast, “Actions Detrimental,” Denny Hamlin predicted victory in last Sunday’s Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway.

Sure enough, Hamlin held off Kyle Larson over the closing laps to earn his third win of the season, tying William Byron for most in the NASCAR Cup Series so far this year.

“You’d better win, if you’re going to open your mouth, that’s for sure,” Hamlin said after the race.

Though the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was reluctant to call his shot for a second straight week, he comes to Kansas Speedway as the defending winner of the AdventHealth 400—and as the record holder for most Cup victories at the track (four).

Ignore Hamlin at your peril. What gives us pause is the stingy price on the JGR driver +400 via DraftKings.

Kyle Larson Is Most Likely to Put a Chevrolet in Victory Lane

In an oft-told story this season, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have battled for supremacy in the NASCAR Cup Series.

Through 11 events, Hendrick has won five times, and Joe Gibbs Racing four, with JGR’s Denny Hamlin taking the most recent trophy at Dover.

We think Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 will shape up in similar fashion, with the proviso that we expand the list of potential Toyota winners to include the two 23XI Racing cars driven by Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick.

If a Hendrick Chevrolet is to win, Kyle Larson is most likely to be driving it. Larson is a terror on intermediate tracks. He won at Las Vegas in March and led 77 laps at Texas in April before a wheel separated from his Camaro.

We don’t dispute Larson’s status as the race favorite at +380 via DraftKings. We just don’t like the puny price he’s paying.

Among Chevy drivers, we like Ross Chastain, who has shown excellent speed at the downforce tracks, to finish in the top three at +550 via DraftKings.

Bubba Wallace Deserves More Respect Than He’s Getting at Kansas

Toyotas have won the last four races at Kansas Speedway, which means all races since the introduction of the Next Gen race car into the NASCAR Cup Series in 2022.

In addition to Denny Hamlin, three drivers from 23XI Racing—Kurt Busch, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick—have accounted for three of those victories.

Busch was forced into retirement by an accident at Pocono later in 2022, but Reddick and Wallace will be racing at Kansas on Sunday.

We favor Wallace because he’s listed at +1500 via DraftKings, a number that we feel doesn’t reflect his potential.

For the second straight week, we also like a hedge bet on any Ford driver to win at a whopping +600. Though no Ford driver has won at Kansas since Joey Logano triumphed in 2020, you get more than a third of the field at a generous price.

How to Watch the AdventHealth 400

  • What: AdventHealth 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: Kansas Speedway

  • When: Sunday, May 5, 3 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FS1


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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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