Ag-Pro 300 Predictions: Austin Hill Is Back in the Spotlight

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated April 19, 2024
4 min read
  • If the Xfinity Series is racing at a superspeedway, Austin Hill must be the favorite.

  • Chevrolet drivers have won nine straight Xfinity races at Talladega Superspeedway.

  • AJ Allmendinger has the knack for racing on NASCAR’s largest oval track.

Ag-Pro 300 Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the odds in the table below and get $150 in bonus bets instantly at DraftKings.

Austin Hill+400
AJ Allmendinger+1000
Sheldon Creed+1200
Riley Herbst+1200
Justin Allgaier+1200
Jesse Love+1200
Ryan Truex+1400
Chandler Smith+1400
Sam Mayer+1500
Cole Custer+1500
Parker Kligerman+1600

Our Picks for the Ag-Pro 300

  • AJ Allmendinger to win the race at +1000 via DraftKings

  • Jeb Burton to finish in the top three at +700 via DraftKings

  • Parker Kligerman to beat Sam Mayer head-to-head at -110 via DraftKings

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Ag-Pro 300 Predictions

Ag-Pro 300 Predictions

Should Austin Hill Be Heavily Favored in Saturday’s Talladega Race?

OK, we understand why Austin Hill is the prohibitive favorite in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300, the third NASCAR Xfinity Series race on a superspeedway this season.

Hill won the year’s first two races using the superspeedway competition package—at Daytona and Atlanta—so it’s not really a surprise that DraftKings oddsmakers have listed him at +400.

However, we have issues with that choice. Though Talladega and sister track Daytona both employ the superspeedway package, drivers often have substantially different results at the two tracks.

Three of Hill’s eight career wins have come at Daytona. At Talladega, on the other hand, he has failed to produce a single top 10 in four starts, despite winning the pole for the last two Xfinity races there.

Accordingly, we’re inclined to avoid Hill on Saturday, especially at a price that’s markedly stingier than that of any other competitor.

There’s No Reason to Think Chevrolet Won’t Continue Its Domination

Chevrolet drivers have triumphed in the last nine NASCAR Xfinity Series races at Talladega Superspeedway, and there’s scant reason to think that streak might be broken in Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300.

First of all, Chevrolet has a huge advantage in car count. Out of 40 cars on the entry list, 28 are Chevys, seven are Fords and five are Toyotas.

Admittedly, four of the five Toyotas belong to powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing, but JGR hasn’t managed to win at Talladega since Elliott Sadler took the checkered flag in 2014.

We think Chevrolet will continue its domination of the 2.66-mile track, the largest oval in NASCAR racing.

But which Camaro driver will win? See below for the answer.

AJ Allmendinger Has the Knack on NASCAR’s Largest Oval Track

At a track that’s famous for random results based on the unpredictability of close-quarters drafting, AJ Allmendinger has posted a remarkably consistent record.

In six starts at the mammoth track, Allmendinger has recorded a victory in the fall race of 2022, two top fives, and four top 10s. In his last two races there, the Dinger has finished third and first.

There’s an added wrinkle to Saturday’s Ag-Pro 300. Along with Sam Mayer, Ryan Sieg, and Justin Allgaier, Allmendinger is eligible for a $100,000 Dash 4 Cash bonus based on his fourth-place finish in last Saturday’s race at Texas.

Allmendinger is the only Dash 4 Cash driver who has a victory at the 2.66-mile track, and we think he’ll add a second win to his total in the No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet. Allmendinger is offered at +1000 via DraftKings.

We also like Talladega’s most recent Xfinity winner, Jeb Burton, to finish in the top three at +700 via DraftKings.

How to Watch the Ag-Pro 300

  • Race: Ag-Pro 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series race

  • Location: Talladega Superspeedway

  • Time: Saturday, April 20, 4 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FOX


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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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