Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions: Cup Playoff Drivers Face Elimination

• Denny Hamlin needs a solid result to keep his championship hopes alive.

• Kyle Busch is a Bristol phenom, but RCR’s short-track package is lacking.

• Kyle Larson could use a stellar run to regain Cup Series Playoff momentum.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Odds

The following odds are taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 at bet365 to claim your bonus of choice: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose.

Our Picks for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

• Kyle Larson to win the race at +600 via bet365  

• Brad Keselowski to finish in the top three at +325 via bet365

• Chris Buescher to finish in the top five at +275 via bet365

• William Byron to beat Ryan Blaney head-to-head at -115 via bet365

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions

Denny Hamlin Can’t Seem to Shake His Streak of Bad Luck

We’re not surprised Denny Hamlin is the odds-on favorite to win Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

After all, Hamlin has won the last two races at the 0.533-mile high-banked concrete track, and he’s a master at saving tires—an attribute that will come into play in this Round of 12 NASCAR Cup Series elimination race.

In offering Hamlin at +350 (bet365), however, oddsmakers aren’t taking into account the cloud of ill fortune that has followed him in the first two Playoff races. At Atlanta, a late wreck hurt his points position. At Watkins Glen, the wreck came on Lap 1.

As a consequence, Hamlin comes to Bristol six points below the current cut line and in danger of elimination when the Playoff field is trimmed from 16 drivers to 12 on Saturday.

We expect Hamlin to have a decent day. We expect him to avoid elimination. But we don’t expect him to win, given the recent setbacks he has suffered.

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It’s Hard to Ignore Kyle Busch at One of His Best Tracks—But You Must

Oh, how tempting Kyle Busch is at a price of +2200 via bet365.

Busch is the leading active Cup winner at Bristol Motor Speedway—by a lot. Busch has eight victories in 35 starts at Thunder Valley.

In 2010, the driver of the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet completed an unprecedented sweep of all three national series races at Bristol on the same weekend. In 2017, he repeated the feat at the same track.

But since NASCAR introduced its Gen 7 race car in 2022, Busch has finished 34th, 20th and 25th at Bristol. RCR simply hasn’t solved NASCAR’s short-track competition package, and we don’t expect that to change on Saturday.

Even at +2200, Busch isn’t a good bet—sadly.

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Kyle Larson Figures to Get His Playoff Effort Back on Track at Bristol

Kyle Larson entered the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs as the top seed, but disaster struck early in the postseason opener at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

On Lap 56, Larson lost control in Turn 2, overcorrected and rocketed into the outside wall, ending his day. A week later at Watkins Glen, he finished a mundane 12th.

Bristol, however, is the perfect place for Larson to regain the momentum he brought to the Playoffs. He has one pole and one victory in 16 starts at the track, with the win coming in the 2021 Night Race.

In his last five races at Bristol, Larson has finished first, second, fifth (twice) and sixth. We like him to add a second win to his resume on Saturday at +600 via bet365.

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How to Watch the Bass Pro Shops Night Race

• What: Bass Pro Shops Night Race (NASCAR Cup Series)

• Where: Bristol Motor Speedway

• When: Saturday, September 21, 7:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: USA