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Image for Reid Spencer Reid Spencer - Updated October 28, 2022

Dead on Tools 250 Predictions: Final Two Spots in Championship 4 Will Be Set on Saturday

  • Final two Championship 4 spots are available in the Round of 8 finale.
  • Ty Gibbs looks to atone for a missed opportunity in the April race at Martinsville.
  • Brandon Jones needs a season sweep at the .526-mile short track to advance.

Dead On Tools 250 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Noah Gragson


Ty Gibbs


Justin Allgaier


Josh Berry


Sam Mayer


AJ Allmendinger


Sammy Smith


Austin Hill


Sheldon Creed


Riley Herbst


Daniel Hemric


Our Picks for the Dead On Tools 250

Ty Gibbs to win the race at +300

AJ Allmendinger to finish in the top three at +250

Brandon Jones to beat Sam Mayer head-to-head at -110head-to-head at -110

Dead On Tools 250 Predictions

Final Two Spots in Championship 4 Will Be Set on Saturday

Let’s set the scene. JR Motorsports teammates Josh Berry and Noah Gragson already have qualified for the Nov. 5 Championship 4 race at Phoenix  on the strength of respective victories at Las Vegas and Homestead-Miami .

That leaves two spots available in the title event and one race left to decide them. Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, Justin Allgaier, Austin Hill, Sam Mayer and Brandon Jones all will drive to stay alive in the Dead On Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway.

Gibbs and Allmendinger currently occupy the third and fourth spots in the standings, with the remaining four drivers occupying the undesirable turf below the cut line. At the venerable .526-mile short track, however, that could change on a dime.  

Ty Gibbs Hopes to Atone for Missed Opportunity at Martinsville

In the April 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Martinsville Speedway, Ty Gibbs qualified on the pole, led 197 of 261 laps and won the first stage.

At the end of the proceedings, however, he was stuck in eighth place as the race went to overtime and Sam Mayer collided with Gibbs on the final lap.

Gibbs is 30 points above the cut line for Championship 4, needing to score 31 points or more on Saturday to secure his place in the title race.

That also gives him latitude to compete for the victory, and if the spring event is any indication, his No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota should be fast enough to do so.

Accordingly, Gibbs is our pick to win the race at a modest +300 via DraftKings Sportsbook. And mind you, we’re on a roll again. Last week we gave you Noah Gragson to win the race and AJ Allmendinger to beat Sam Mayer heads-up. Check and check.

Brandon Jones Must Win to Earn Final Four Spot at Phoenix

JGR driver Brandon Jones enters Saturday’s race 38 points behind Allmendinger for the final berth in Championship 4.

A victory at Martinsville, however, would mean automatic advancement to the title race. Realistically, that’s the only way for Jones to retain his championship eligibility.

It’s not a far-fetched proposition. Jones stole the lead from teammate Ty Gibbs on the final lap of overtime in April and claimed the victory.

However, we don’t think Jones can pull off the season sweep on Saturday, but we do expect him to beat Sam Mayer head-to-head at -110 as experience wins out in that matchup.

We also expect AJ Allmendinger to duplicate his top-three finish from April at +250.

How to Watch the Dead On Tools 250

RaceDead On Tools 250 NASCAR Xfinity Series race


Martinsville Speedway


Saturday, October 29, 3 p.m. ET

How to Watch


Image for Reid Spencer


Reid Spencer

201 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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