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Dead on Tools 250 Predictions: Playoff Drivers Vie for Supremacy

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 27, 2023
11 min read
  • We’re steering clear of odds-on favorite John Hunter Nemechek—again.
  • Our picks for top three finishes have been exceeding expectations of late.
  • Justin Allgaier has an impeccable record at Martinsville—and lots of experience.

Dead On Tools 250 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

John Hunter Nemechek+200
Justin Allgaier+450
Cole Custer+450
Josh Berry+550
Sam Mayer+1000
Riley Herbst+1100
Sammy Smith+1200
Brandon Jones+1400
Austin Hill+1600
Sheldon Creed+2500
Chandler Smith+2500

Our Picks for the Dead on Tools 250

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Dead on Tools 250 Xfinity

Dead on Tools 250 Predictions

For the Third Straight Week, We Can’t Recommend Betting the Favorite

For the third straight NASCAR Xfinity Series race, John Hunter Nemechek is the heavy favorite to win. DraftKings Sportsbook offers him at +200 for the Dead on Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway.

For the third straight week, we’re advising you not to bet on Nemechek. Our recommendation proved sound at both Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Homestead-Miami Speedway.

It’s true that Nemechek won the spring race at 0.526-mile Martinsville. It’s also true that the driver of the No. 20 has accumulated a series-best seven victories in 31 races so far this season.

Under almost all circumstances, we can’t back any driver in a 38-car field to win at the skinny return of 2-to-1. And there’s another factor at play on Saturday.

The Dead on Tools 250 is the elimination race in the Playoffs’ Round of 8. No matter what else happens, Nemechek needs to score just 12 points to advance to the Championship 4 race at Phoenix Raceway the following Saturday.

We think Nemechek will be more focused on his points position than on winning. Hence, we advise looking elsewhere for your bet to win.

Did We Just Make a Race Winner of Kaulig Driver Chandler Smith?

Two weeks ago, we picked Riley Herbst to finish in the top three at Las Vegas at generous odds. He won the race—the first victory of his career—and we won our bet.

Last Saturday at Homestead-Miami, we picked Sam Mayer to finish in the top three and top five, again at generous odds. You guessed it. Mayer won his fourth race of the season, and we won another juicy bet.

This week, we’re picking Chandler Smith to finish in the top three at +700 via DraftKings. Smith ran fourth last week at Homestead and 10th at Martinsville in the spring.

The Kaulig Racing cars have shown enough strength of late to justify a wager on Smith, who is in a must-win situation when it comes to advancing in the Playoffs.

We also like regular-season champion Austin Hill to finish in the top three at +450 as he fights to make the Championship 4 on points.

Justin Allgaier Has the Record and Experience to Win This Week

Favorite John Hunter Nemechek has raced one time in the Xfinity Series at Martinsville Speedway, winning his only start this past April.

Cole Custer, tied for second choice, won the pole and finished third in that same race in his only start at the venerable short track.

Justin Allgaier, on the other hand, has raced six times at the paper-clip-shaped track, posting three top fives and five top 10s.

Though Allgaier has never won at Martinsville, that level of consistency has convinced us that he will be at or near the front of the field on Saturday.

Allgaier is motivated. He’s three points below the current cut line for the Championship 4, and a victory is a sure path to a berth in the title race.

Hence, we’re recommending Allgaier to win at +450 via DraftKings.

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How to Watch the Dead on Tools 250

  • Race: Dead on Tools 250 NASCAR Xfinity Series race 
  • Location: Martinsville Speedway 
  • Time: Saturday, Oct. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET 
  • How to Watch: USA, NASCAR Live
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Reid Spencer

222 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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