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Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Despite what the oddsmakers may think, Daniel Heric is a savvy road course racer.
It’s true that Hemric has never won an Xfinity Series race on a road course. In fact, the driver of the No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet has won but one NASCAR national series race in his entire career—the 2021 Xfinity final in Phoenix that earned him the series title.
Look at Hemric’s record at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, though. In four starts at the 2.32-mile, 17-turn circuit Hemric has qualified third three times and second once.
He has finished third twice in the four races. We’re not bold enough to predict Hemric’s second career win on Saturday, but we do like him to finish third at a generous +850 and fifth at +350, both via DraftKings Sportsbook.
History is in his favor as Hemric fights for a spot in the Playoffs’ Round of 8. He currently holds a one-point lead over Parker Kligerman for the final spot.
Bear in mind, too, that Hemric is driving for the organization that won the last four Xfinity races at the ROVAL with AJ Allmendinger, who is not eligible to run for a fifth straight victory because of his status as a full-time Cup Series driver.
How good is veteran Justin Allgaier on road courses? In 52 career starts on all road courses combined, he boasts three victories, 18 top fives, and 32 top 10s.
Bottom line: the driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet can be counted on to deliver the goods consistently.
In five starts at the Charlotte Road Course, Allgaier has posted two top fives, including a fifth-place result in his last outing at the track.
There’s a lot to recommend Allgaier this week—with one major reservation. Oddsmaker have listed him as the favorite at +300 (DraftKings).
Though Allgaier has two wins in his last five starts this season—at Daytona and Bristol—we can’t back him on a track where he’s never won at such short odds.
Hence, we’ll look elsewhere.
In the most recent Xfinity Series race, John Hunter Nemechek won at Texas to earn automatic advancement into the Playoffs’ Round of 8.
Accordingly, he can race with abandon at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, as can Justin Allgaier, who won at Bristol.to punch his ticket to the next round.
Nemechek has seven victories this season, far and away the most in the series, and his best finish on a road course this year is sixth at Watkins Glen.
At the Charlotte Road Course, Nemechek has a seventh-place finish to his credit in his only start, in 2019.
What we can’t resist is the +1100 price offered on Nemechek by DraftKings. At that kind of number, we’re willing to take a risk on a seven-time winner.
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Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]
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