Quaker State 400 Predictions, Picks, Odds (Cup Series)

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated July 7, 2023
4 min read
  • Even though he’s making gains in points, Chase Elliott needs a win.
  • AJ Allmendinger is a better superspeedway racer than oddsmakers think he is.
  • Sunday’s Atlanta race is a great opportunity for Ford drivers to even the score.

Quaker State 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook

DriverOdds
Kyle Busch+1000
BET HERE
Chase Elliott+1000
BET HERE
Ryan Blaney+1200
BET HERE
Joey Logano+1200
BET HERE
Brad Keselowski+1300
BET HERE
William Byron+1400
BET HERE
Denny Hamlin+1400
BET HERE
Kyle Larson+1400
BET HERE
Ross Chastain+1600
BET HERE
Christopher Bell+1600
BET HERE
Martin Truex Jr.+2000
BET HERE

Our Picks for the Quaker State 400

  • Joey Logano to win the race at +1200
  • AJ Allmendinger to finish in the top three at +1100 and top five at +500
  • Ty Gibbs to beat Martin Truex Jr. head-to-head at -115
Quaker State 400 predictions

Quaker State 400 Predictions

A Victory at Atlanta Would Take a Lot of Pressure Off Chase Elliott

Despite missing seven races this season—six because of injury and one under a NASCAR suspension—Chase Elliott has been advancing toward a Playoff-eligible position.

When NASCAR decided last Sunday to shorten the Chicago Street Race from 100 to 80 laps because of impending darkness, it flipped the field in favor of drivers who already had made pit stops.

One of the beneficiaries was Elliott, who parlayed his good fortune into a third-place finish and a nine-point gain in the series standings. Elliott now sits 55 points below the cutoff for the Playoffs with eight races left to make up the difference.

A victory, however, almost certainly would guarantee a Playoff berth, and that might be an easier path for Elliott than trying to qualify on points.

Though Elliott is the defending winner of the Quaker State 400, his cars haven’t been fast enough recently to run at the front of the field. Even though he’s a co-favorite with Kyle Busch at +1000 via DraftKings Sportsbook, we don’t think he’ll be taking the checkered flag on Sunday night.

AJ Allmendinger is Better Than You Think on Superspeedways

Two weeks ago, we gave you AJ Allmendinger as our long-shot pick in the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Nashville, and he paid a handsome +1600. (Incidentally, we also had Ross Chastain in the Nashville Cup race, which made for a lucrative weekend.)

Allmendinger races full-time with the big boys in the NASCAR Cup Series, and this week he’s an even longer shot at +4000 to win, +1100 to finish in the top three, and +500 to finish in the top five.

Though Allmendinger’s record of finishing superspeedway races isn’t stellar, he often runs near the front of the pack, particularly in the Kaulig Racing Chevrolets he currently drives.

While we can’t encourage you to chase the big money on the “win” bet, we’ll take a shot on The Dinger to finish in the top three and top five.  

A Superspeedway is a Great Equalizer, so Ford Drivers Have a Chance

It’s no secret that the Ford drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series have been fighting an uphill battle this season.

Chevrolets have won 11 of the first 18 Cup races, and Toyotas have won five. That leaves two for the Fords—a relative pittance.

At a reduced horsepower track like Atlanta, however, the Fords have a fighting chance, as Joey Logano proved when he won at the speedway in March.

Logano’s victory wasn’t a fluke. The driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has consummate skill when it comes to controlling the field from the lead at a superspeedway.

Consequently, we’re picking Logano to win Sunday’s race at an attractive +1200 via DraftKings.

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How to Watch the Quaker State 400

  • What: Quaker State 400 NASCAR Cup Series race
  • Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
  • When: Sunday, July 9, 7 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: USA
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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NASCAR
Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
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Experience:
48 years
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