South Point 400 Predictions: William Byron Aiming for the Top Spot

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 13, 2023
4 min read
  • Denny Hamlin has a chance to prove that 2023 finally is his year.
  • Kyle Larson will be fast, but will he and the No. 5 team be error-free?
  • William Byron has an excellent chance at a Sin City season sweep.

South Point 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kyle Larson+400
William Byron+550
Denny Hamlin+600
Tyler Reddick+800
Martin Truex Jr.+800
Christopher Bell+1100
Ryan Blaney+1400
Kyle Busch+1400
Chris Buescher+1400
Chase Elliott+1600
Brad Keselowski+1800

Our Picks for the South Point 400

  • William Byron to win the race at +550
  • Chase Elliott to finish in the top three at +450
  • Alex Bowman to beat Ty Gibbs head-to-head at -105
South Point 400 Predictions

South Point 400 Predictions

Denny Hamlin Can Take a Giant Step Toward First Title on Sunday

Despite a 37th-place finish in Last Sunday’s Round of 12 Playoff race at the Charlotte Road Course, Denny Hamlin has never been more confident.

By the time he was knocked out of that event, Hamlin already had scored enough points to advance to the Round of 8, which features three tracks that suit his style.

At Las Vegas, Hamlin has four top fives in his last six starts, including a victory in the 2021 Playoff race.

The speed in his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas has been consistently excellent throughout the current season.

If we weren’t enamored with the Hendrick Motorsports cars this week, we might well back Hamlin at +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook.

He’s a good choice to ran top-three or top-five, but he’s not worth betting those propositions at very slim odds.

Kyle Larson Must Avoid Mistakes to Be Worthy of Favorite’s Role

It’s easy to predict that Kyle Larson will have a fast car. What’s more difficult is predicting where the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet will finish a race.

In practice for last Sunday’s race at Charlotte, Larson lost control of his car, crashed into the Turn 8 wall, and had to start the event from the rear of the field in a backup car,

Though Larson advanced through the field and finished a respectable 13th, the mistake cost him a chance to fulfill his role as a pre-race favorite.

That’s why we’re leery of betting on the 2021 NASCAR Cup champion at +400 via DraftKings. Errors by the driver or his crew have cost Larson on more than one occasion this season.

However, we do like propositions involving two of Larson’s teammates. We expect Chase Elliott, who has shown good speed lately, to finish in the top three at +450 (DraftKings), and we like 2022 Las Vegas spring race winner Alex Bowman to beat rookie Ty Gibbs head-to-head at -105.

William Byron Has a Great Chance to Accomplish Sin City Sweep

We think William Byron should be the favorite to win Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas. He isn’t, but that hasn’t deterred us from picking him to win the race.

Byron won at Las Vegas in the spring and has a chance to pull off an unprecedented season sweep at the 1.5-mile track, which was awarded a second race in 2018.

The driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Chevy has a series-best six wins this season, and he leads the Playoff standings by five points over Martin Truex Jr.

In the last three Playoff races, Byron has finished first, second, and second—an obvious indication of momentum.

Hence, our money is on the Playoff leader to add to his victory total on Sunday—at a reasonable +550 from DraftKings.

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How to Watch the South Point 400

  • Race: South Point 400 NASCAR Cup Series race
  • Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
  • Time: Sunday, Oct. 15, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: NBC
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Image for Reid Spencer

Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
48 years
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