South Point 400 Predictions, Betting Odds and Picks (Cup Series)

  • If this is truly Kyle Larson’s year, he can prove it with a Las Vegas sweep.
  • Will we see an eruption of the Kevin Harvick-Chase Elliott rivalry this week?
  • Joe Gibbs Racing owned the first Playoff round. The second could be Team Penske’s.

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South Point 400 Odds

Odds taken from PointsBet Sportsbook

Winner Odds
Kyle Larson +330
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Kyle Busch +600
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Denny Hamlin +700
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Chase Elliott +800
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Martin Truex Jr. +900
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Kevin Harvick +1000
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Joey Logano +1100
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William Byron +1200
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Ryan Blaney +1400
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Brad Keselowski +1500
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Alex Bowman +1800
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Christopher Bell +2000
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Kurt Busch +2500
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Last Saturday’s Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway eliminated four drivers from the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff—Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick, and Michael McDowell.

It also kindled a rivalry between Kevin Harvick and reigning series champion Chase Elliott, who effectively squelched each other’s chances to win the race.

The second round of the Cup Playoff commences on Sunday with the South Point 400, which will be contested over 267 laps (400.5 miles) with stage breaks scheduled after 80 and 160 laps. Kurt Busch is the defending winner of the race.

Are Back-to-Back Victories in the Cards for Series Leader Kyle Larson?

Kyle Larson has two ways to go back-to-back in Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

First of all, he’s coming off his first victory in the Night Race at Bristol and could open the Round of 12 in the Playoff with a victory at Las Vegas. That, of course, would be his second straight win at the Nevada track, the venue that gave him the first of his series-leading victories this season.

Larson has to be considered a major threat at the 1.5-mile speedway. The driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet boasts an average finish of 9.8 at Las Vegas, the third-best among active Cup drivers.

He’s the favorite to win on Sunday, and he’ll certainly be a factor, but we don’t think he’s the best bet on the board at the skinny price of +340 via PointsBet Sportsbook. More on that below.

Kevin Harvick-Chase Elliott Rivalry Could Cloud the Issue at Las Vegas

After the race at Bristol, there’s no love lost between Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott. Attempting to pass Elliott for the lead on Lap 465 of 500 in the Sept. 18 race, Harvick crowded Elliott into the outside wall and cut Elliott’s left front tire.

When Elliott returned to the track after pitting, he camped out in Harvick’s preferred line, enabling teammate Kyle Larson to close on Harvick and eventually pass him for the win.

After an angry confrontation on pit road, Harvick told a television reporter, “I’d like to rip somebody’s frickin’ head off.”

Both Harvick (+1100 via PointsBet) and Elliott (+850) are potential contenders at Las Vegas, but if they try to make each other miserable on Sunday, their winning chances will be diminished.

Discretion is the better part of valor here. In other words, avoid betting on both drivers because of the potential complications.

You Can Expect Team Penske to Shine in the Playoff’s Second Round

Here are the raw numbers. Team Penske has three drivers among the top four active competitors in average finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway—Joey Logano at 8.4, Ryan Blaney at 9.2, and Brad Keselowski at 10.8.

Penske Ford drivers have won three of the last six races at the track—Logano with two victories and Keselowski with one. Keselowski also finished second to Kyle Larson in this year’s first visit to LVMS.

Though the Penske teams don’t have the fastest cars, they have great setups for the track and a history of success in Sin City.

And though the Joe Gibbs racing drivers (Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex Jr.) are the second, third and fourth choices via PointsBet, we favor Logano (+1200) to win the first Playoff race at a 550-horsepower track. Keselowski and Blaney also are undervalued at +1400.

How to Watch South Point 400

South Point 400 Information
Race South Point 400 NASCAR Cup Series race
Location Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Time Sunday, September 26, 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch NBCSN

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Reid Spencer

Expert on NASCAR

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]