South Point 400 Predictions: It’s All About Survival

• Kyle Larson may be favored, but he’s had bad luck in Playoff openers

• William Byron is on the upswing after a third-place run at the Roval

• Joey Logano is living the year’s best NASCAR Cup redemption story

South Point 400 Betting Odds

The following odds are taken from bet365 Sportsbook. Use our promo code WSN365 at bet365 to claim your bonus of choice: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose.

Our Picks for the South Point 400

• Joey Logano to win the race at +1400 via bet365

• Kyle Busch to finish in the top three at +500 via bet365

• Carson Hocevar to beat Noah Gragson head-to-head at -115 via bet365

South Point 400 Predictions

Pattern in First Two Playoff Rounds Belies Kyle Larson’s Favorite Status

You might think we’re crazy to go against Kyle Larson in particular and Hendrick Motorsports in general, given the statistics at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

After all, Larson has won the last two NASCAR Cup Series races at LVMS, and Hendrick drivers as a group have accounted for five of the last seven victories there.

But Sunday’s South Point 400 is the first race in the Round of 8 of the Cup Playoffs, and Larson hasn’t fared well in the openers of the previous two rounds.

At Atlanta, in the first race in the Round of 16, he lost control in Turn 2, smacked the outside wall and finished 37th, only to dominate the elimination race at Bristol two weeks later.

In the Round of 12 opener at Kansas Speedway, Larson cut a tire, slammed into the Turn 2 wall and limped home to a 26th-place finish—only to dominate the elimination race at the Charlotte Roval two weeks later.

That pattern is why we’re leery of Larson as the odds-on favorite this weekend at +400 at bet365 Sportsbook. We’re looking elsewhere for the winner.

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William Byron Is on the Upswing after Strong Third-Place Run at Roval

It was about time for William Byron to have a breakout performance—or at least one that showed his No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet still had the speed to contend.

Byron ran third last Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course, admittedly 8.965 seconds behind the dominant car of teammate Kyle Larson, but Byron and his team were able to put together a solid race as the crucial Round of 8 approaches.

That’s a positive step for a driver who won three of the first eight races this season by has had an up-and-down campaign since then.

In 13 starts at Las Vegas, Byron has a victory in the spring race of 2023, plus one other top five and five other tops 10s.

Yes, we think he be a contender on Sunday, but we don’t think he’ll win the South Point 400. Consequently, we’re not backing him at +800 via bet365.

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Joey Logano Has Potential Redemption Story Playing Out in Vegas

In every even-numbered year since NASCAR introduced the elimination format to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Joey Logano has qualified for the Championship 4 race.

That streak ended last Sunday at the Charlotte Roval—but only briefly. When Alex Bowman’s Chevrolet didn’t make minimum weight in post-race inspection, Bowman was disqualified, and Logano was back in the Round of 8 of the Playoffs.

That may be all the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford needs to make a run at a third championship. The speed in Logano’s cars has been improving of late, and it wouldn’t surprise us to see him take advantage of the unexpected reprieve.

Logano has won three of the last 11 Las Vegas Cup races, and his resume also includes three poles, seven top fives and 13 top 10s.

We think Logano is primed for victory this weekend—and an automatic ticket to the Championship 4—and we like him at the generous price of +1400 via bet365.

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How to Watch South Point 400

• What: South Point 400 NASCAR Cup Series race

• Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway

• When: Sunday, October 20, 2:30 p.m. ET

• How to Watch: NBC