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Wurth 400 Predictions: There’s No Place Like Home for Martin Truex Jr.

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated April 26, 2024
4 min read
  • Powerhouse teams claim the lion’s share of victories at the Monster Mile.

  • After a close call at Talladega, Ford drivers face an uphill battle at Dover.

  • Dover Motor Speedway can be the saving grace for local hero Martin Truex Jr.

Wurth 400 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click odds in the table below and claim $200 in bonus bets when wagering at least $5 at DraftKings.

DriverOdds
Kyle Larson+450
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Martin Truex Jr.+600
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William Byron+750
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Ross Chastain+750
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Denny Hamlin+750
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Christopher Bell+1000
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Chase Elliott+1100
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Ty Gibbs+1300
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Ryan Blaney+1300
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Alex Bowman+1600
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Tyler Reddick+1900
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Our Picks for the Wurth 400

Wurth 400 Predictions

Wurth 400 Predictions

Powerhouse Teams Hold Sway in NASCAR Cup Races at Monster Mile

If you don’t drive for either Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing, your chances to win a NASCAR Cup Series race at Dover Motor Speedway are slim indeed.

Competitors for those two organizations have won 15 of the last 18 Cup races at the Monster Mile, dating to Jimmie Johnson’s victory in the fall event of 2013.

The only exception to the Hendrick/Gibbs domination is now-retired future Hall of Famer Kevin Harvick, who won the three other races of the last 18.

So, yes, we look to Hendrick and Gibbs for the winner of Sunday’s Wurth 400. After all, those two organizations also have combined to win eight of the first 10 events this year.

But which driver? See below for the answer.

After a Close Call at Talladega, Ford Drivers Face a Challenge at Dover

Last Sunday’s race at Talladega Superspeedway was considered the best chance for a Ford driver to get a victory this season.

Indeed, 500 yards from the finish line, three Fords occupied the top three positions in the running order.

But Ford driver Michael McDowell threw a second block on fellow Ford driver Brad Keselowski, breaking then momentum of Keselowski and that of Ford driver Noah Gragson, allowing the Toyota of Tyler Reddick to win the race while McDowell crashed near the front of the field.

Only twice in the last 22 Dover races has a Ford taken the checkered flag, both with the aforementioned Kevin Harvick behind the wheel.

No Ford has found Victory Lane this season, and we don’t expect that to change on Sunday. However, we do advocate a hedge bet on any Ford driver to win at the favorable odds of +350 via DraftKings.

With 14 Ford drivers in the race, that accounts for more than a third of the field.

Martin Truex Jr. Goes for Two in a Row at His Home Race Track

Back in 2007, Martin Truex Jr. claimed his first NASCAR Cup Series victory, beating Ryan Newman to the finish line by a whopping 7.355 seconds.

In 33 career starts at the one-mile, high-banked concrete oval he considers his home track, the Mayetta, New Jersey, native has posted four victories, 10 top fives and 19 top 10s, for an average finish of 11.4.

Truex is the defending winner of this race. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver also is our pick to win on Sunday at +600 via DraftKings.

How to Watch the Wurth 400

  • What: Wurth 400 NASCAR Cup Series Race

  • Where: Dover Motor Speedway

  • When: Sunday, April 28, 2 p.m. ET

  • How to Watch: FS1

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Reid Spencer

NASCAR Betting Analyst

Expertise:
NASCAR
Betting Analyst
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor in Drama
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: FanDuel Casino
Experience:
48 years
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