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Image for Reid Spencer Reid Spencer - Updated October 28, 2022

Xfinity 500 Predictions: Ross Chastain Brings Renewed Momentum to Elimination Race

  • Seven drivers are competing for three remaining spots in the Cup title race.  
  • Ross Chastain is showing renewed strength in the Playoffs’ Round of 8.
  • Denny Hamlin needs a major reversal to keep his championship hopes alive.

Xfinity 500 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Chase Elliott


Denny Hamlin


William Byron


Ryan Blaney


Joey Logano


Martin Truex Jr.


Kyle Larson


Christopher Bell


Ross Chastain


Kyle Busch


Kevin Harvick


Our Picks for the Xfinity 500

Ross Chastain to win the race at +1200

Ross Chastain to finish in the top three at +350

Ross Chastain to beat Chase Elliott head-to-head at +160



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Xfinity 500 Predictions

Xfinity 500 Predictions

It’s a Fight to the Finish for Final Three Spots in Championship 4

Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway is the last race in the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, with three berths in the Championship 4 still available.

The only driver who knows he’ll race for the title is Joey Logano, who sewed up a spot in the season finale with a victory in the Round of 8 openers at Las Vegas.

That leaves seven drivers—Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe—competing for the final three positions in Championship 4.

A win by any of the seven earns automatic advancement to the Championship 4 competition.

Ross Chastain Brings Renewed Momentum to Elimination Race

Despite a disastrous 37th-place finish at the Charlotte ROVAL, Ross Chastain survived the Round of 12 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff.

Since then, the driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has been on fire.

Chastain ran second to Joey Logano in the opening race in the Round of 8 at Las Vegas. After we picked him to finish in the top three at Homestead-Miami last Sunday, he added a second straight runner-up result at the South Florida track.

Admittedly, Chastain needs to find a little more speed at Martinsville, but after qualifying 27th in April, he drove up to fifth by the end of the race.

We expect Chastain to qualify much better this weekend, and he’s our pick to win the race on Sunday at +1200 via DraftKings Sportsbook. (We also like the top-three bet at +350.)

Denny Hamlin Needs Major Reversal to Qualify for Championship 4

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is a five-time winner at .526-mile Martinsville Speedway, but in the April race at the paper-clip-shaped short track, he drove like a backmarker in an ill-handling No. 11 Toyota.

Hamlin started 25th and struggled to a 28th-place result. Nevertheless, oddsmakers list the Virginia driver as second favorite at +700.

Though we don’t think Hamlin will duplicate his poor showing this weekend, we don’t think he’ll improve enough to win Sunday’s race. It will be hard enough for Hamlin to overcome the five-point deficit he faces in trying to qualify for Championship 4.

Accordingly, we advise steering clear of Hamlin on Sunday.

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How to Watch the Xfinity 500

RaceXfinity 500 NASCAR Cup Series race


Martinsville Speedway


Sunday, October 30, 2 p.m. ET

How to Watch


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Image for Reid Spencer


Reid Spencer

209 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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