Xfinity 500 Predictions, Picks, Odds (Cup Series)

• With a point cushion, Chase Elliott can look ahead to defense of his 2020 championship.
• In a breakout season, Kyle Larson goes for double-digit victories at Martinsville.
• Martin Truex Jr. can secure a Championship 4 berth with another short-track win.

Xfinity 500 Odds

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We picked Kyle Larson to win a second straight race in the NASCAR Cup Series’ Round of 8 last week, and the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet came through at Kansas Speedway.

Larson is locked into the Nov. 7 Championship 4 round at Phoenix Raceway with his victories in the Round of 8. But the real battle is beneath him.

Kyle Busch is fourth in the Playoff standings—the last Championship 4-eligible position—but he’s just one point ahead of Ryan Blaney and three in front of Martin Truex Jr. Brad Keselowski is a mere six points behind Busch.

Those drivers will fight for the final Playoff spot in Sunday’s Xfinity 500, which will be contested over 500 laps (263 miles), with stage breaks scheduled after 130 and 260 laps. Chase Elliott is the defending winner of this race.

Chase Elliott Will Try to Duplicate His Pressure Performance from 2020

Last year, Chase Elliott came to Martinsville Speedway needing a victory to advance to the Championship 4 race at Phoenix.

He got it, and a week later he won the season finale to claim his first NASCAR Cup Series title.

Elliott returns to Martinsville this week for the Round of 8 elimination race but without the urgency, he felt last year. If he can stay out of trouble in Sunday‘s Xfinity 500, Elliott will advance to the Championship 4 on points.

Elliott is a third-choice win on Sunday at +600 via DraftKings Sportsbook, but we don’t think he’ll be visiting Victory Lane. Rather, the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet will play it conservatively and punch his ticket to the final four.

The bottom line? We don’t recommend a bet on the defending winner of this race.

Kyle Larson Is Looking for Another Milestone Victory at Martinsville

Just because Kyle Larson has never won a Cup race at Martinsville Speedway, that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be favored to win at the track on Sunday.

Consider this remarkable stat: all nine of Larson’s victories this season have come at tracks where the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet has never won before.

Larson posted victories in the first two races of the Round of 8, at Texas and Kansas, but we don’t think he’s going to get another maiden win at Martinsville, where he has just two top-fives and three top 10s in 13 starts.

So don’t waste your money betting on Larson (+500 via DraftKings) to sweep the Round of 8 and take a four-race winning streak to Phoenix.

With Another Win at Martinsville, Martin Truex Jr. Will Race for a Title

For the first 13 years of Martin Truex Jr.’s NASCAR Cup Series career, short tracks were kryptonite to the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.

In 2019, however, Truex got his first short-track win at Richmond, and since then, Truex has been the master of speedways measuring less than a mile.

In fact, Truex’s last seven victories, dating to the 2019 Playoff race at Martinsville, have come at tracks shorter than 1.5 miles.

Truex has won three of the last four races at Martinsville, and we think he’ll win again on Sunday to advance to Championship 4. In the process he’ll knock Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch out of the Playoff.

At +450 (DraftKings), Truex will give you a decent return on your money, too.

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