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In the title race, John Hunter Nemechek is once again the heavy favorite.
Sam Mayer is a worthy long shot in his first Championship 4 appearance.
Veteran Justin Allgaier stole a final fourth berth with his Martinsville win.
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click the bets below to place your bets at DraftKings.
Driver | Odds |
---|---|
John Hunter Nemechek | +165 BET HERE |
Justin Allgaier | +320 BET HERE |
Cole Custer | +400 BET HERE |
Sammy Smith | +800 BET HERE |
Sam Mayer | +800 BET HERE |
Riley Herbst | +1600 BET HERE |
Austin Hill | +1600 BET HERE |
Josh Berry | +1800 BET HERE |
Chandler Smith | +1800 BET HERE |
Sheldon Creed | +2200 BET HERE |
Daniel Hemric | +2500 BET HERE |
Justin Allgaier to win the race at +320
Austin Hill to finish in the top three at +450
Sam Mayer to beat Sammy Smith head-to-head at -115
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For three straight races, we have steered you away from John Hunter Nemechek as the heavy favorite—not because Nemechek doesn’t have the talent or will to win, but primarily because the risk inherent in a 38-car field doesn’t justify a minimal reward.
Fortunately, from our point of view, we have been right in every case. And guess what? We’re making the same call for Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway.
Nemechek is offered at a miserly +165 via DraftKings Sportsbook in the race that will decide the Xfinity champion for 2023. Yes, he leads the series this season with seven victories, and, yes, he has not finished outside the top 10 in six starts at the one-mile track.
But Nemechek, who will leave Joe Gibbs Racing for a NASCAR Cup Series ride with Legacy Motor Club in 2024, has never won at Phoenix, and his best finishes in a JGR Toyota are a pair of sixths—in the title race of 2021 and the spring race of this year.
Once again, the potential payoff for a Nemechek victory is just too small, and we’re looking elsewhere for the winner.
In sharp contrast to John Hunter Nemechek, Sam Mayer is substantially undervalued at +800 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Consider that Mayer has won four of the last 12 NASCAR Xfinity Series races. Admittedly, three of those victories were accomplished on road courses, but his last win came on the oval at Homestead-Miami Speedway two weeks ago.
The driver of the No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet comes to the season finale with two victories and a fifth-place finish in his last four races. Though we don’t think he’ll win Saturday’s race, he’s worthy of consideration at an excellent price.
We do think Mayer will beat Sammy Smith in a head-to-head matchup at -115 via DraftKings.
Until the final lap last Saturday at Martinsville Speedway, Justin Allgaier was in dire peril of elimination from the 2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.
That’s when Richard Childress racing teammates Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed kept each other out of Victory Lane with a bumping, banging overtime battle that allowed Allgaier to sneak through the melee in the final corner and win the race.
As a result, Allgaier will race for a championship on Saturday, and Hill and Creed will reflect on what could have been.
Allgaier has the most experience among the Championship 4 driver, a group that includes John Hunter Nemechek, Sam Mayer, and Cole Custer. The 37-year-old driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevy has 17 top 10s, nine top fives, and two victories in 26 starts at one-mile Phoenix, the most recent win coming in 2019.
The popular veteran was our pick to win last week, and he came through on the final lap to earn a chance to win his first Xfinity title. We believe he will accomplish that feat by winning the race this weekend at +320 via DraftKings.
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Race: NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race
Location: Phoenix Raceway
Time: Saturday, Nov. 4, 7 p.m. ET
How to Watch: USA
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]
More info on Reid Spencer
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