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Image for Reid Spencer Reid Spencer - Updated November 7, 2022

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship: It’s Hard to Find a Reason Not to Favor Noah Gragson

  • Noah Gragson is a prohibitive favorite in the title race—and for good reason.
  • Ty Gibbs enters season finale in the wake of controversial finish at Martinsville.
  • Though he’s out of the Playoffs, the odds on AJ Allmendinger are too long to ignore.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.


Noah Gragson


Ty Gibbs



Justin Allgaier


Josh Berry


Sam Mayer


Brandon Jones


AJ Allmendinger


Sammy Smith


Austin Hill


Sheldon Creed


Riley Herbst


NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Pick

Noah Gragson to win the race at +170

Noah Gragson to win the Xfinity Championship at +150

Brandon Jones to beat Sam Mayer head-to-head at -105



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NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship

NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Predictions

It’s Hard to Find a Reason Not to Favor Noah Gragson on Saturday

There’s ample justification for DraftKings Sportsbook establishing Noah Gragson as the prohibitive favorite to win Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at Phoenix—not to mention the championship that goes with a victory.

Gragson has won a series-best eight of the 32 Xfinity races this season. That includes a victory at Phoenix in March.

So when DraftKings posts Gragson as a +170 favorite, we can’t disagree. Accordingly, he’s our pick to win Saturday’s race.

For the faint of heart—or for those who don’t like the short odds against 35 other competitors—you can bet on Gragson to win the championship at +150 via DraftKings.

In that case, he’ll only have to beat three other drivers—JR Motorsports teammates Justin Allgaier and Josh Berry and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs.

Can Ty Gibbs Interrupt His Apology Tour to Race for the Title?  

On Thursday’s Championship 4 Media Day in Phoenix, Ty Gibbs spent most of the morning trying to rehabilitate his image.

Last Saturday at Martinsville Speedway, Gibbs wrecked Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Brandon Jones on the final lap and knocked his fellow Toyota driver out of the Xfinity Series Playoffs.

In the immediate aftermath, Gibbs showed no contrition, but by the time Media Day arrived, he was saying all the right things.

The problem is that Gibbs’ full concentration likely isn’t on the task at hand. In addition, he’s competing for the title against three drivers from JR Motorsports, who have strength in numbers on their side.

That’s why we’re avoiding bets on Gibbs this weekend, whether to win the race at +300 or to win the title at +260 (both via DraftKings Sportsbook) We advise you to do the same.

AJ Allmendinger Is the Best Long-Shot Pick on the Board This Week

If you’re inclined to bet long shots, we recommend action on AJ Allmendinger.

The Xfinity Series regular-season champion didn’t survive the Round of 8 in the Playoffs, but he comes to Phoenix devoid of championship pressure.

Allmendinger has never won a race at Phoenix, but he has posted one top five and two top 10s in five Xfinity starts there. He has never finished worse than 14th at the one-mile track.

At +2000 to win via DraftKings, Allmendinger is an attractive proposition, if you’re inclined to take a flyer.

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How to Watch the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship

  • Race: NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship
  • Location: Phoenix Raceway
  • Time: Saturday, November 5, 6 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: USA Network 

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Image for Reid Spencer


Reid Spencer

209 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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