When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >
Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
🔥 Claimed by 74 people this week!
Great payment and customer support
Access to fantasy sports with one account
Bet $5, Get $150 + a No Sweat SGP
21+ | T&Cs apply
The conventional wisdom about Talladega Superspeedway invariably turns out to be true. Because NASCAR Cup cars with restricted engines race in large packs, the field of potential winners expands to include drivers who typically aren’t at the front of the field.
Not only that. Close-quarters racing almost always produces massive wrecks that sideline significant portions of the field—and eliminate favorites.
That’s why handicapping races on superspeedways is so difficult. And that’s why the favorite in Sunday’s YellaWood 500, Brad Keselowski, is offered at +900 by DraftKings Sportsbook, rather than at much tighter odds.
Historically, Talladega has produced more than its share of first-time winners, several of whom never won another race—among them Phil Parsons, Lennie Pond, Ron Bouchard, Dick Brooks and Bobby Hillin Jr.
So you might want to throw darts at a board to pick a winner here—with the proviso that you’ll see in the last section of this analysis.
Among the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff drivers this season, no one has been consistently faster than Denny Hamlin.
In his last three starts—at Kansas, Bristol, and Texas—Hamlin has finished second, first, and fifth, making the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota a likely choice to advance to the Playoffs’ Round of 8.
Hamlin is an adept superspeedway racer, having won the prestigious Daytona 500 three times, most among active drivers. That’s one reason why he’s among the top choices for Sunday’s race at +1300 via DraftKings.
But Hamlin’s record on superspeedways this season has been lackluster at best. He was 17th and 26th in two races at Daytona, sixth and 14th in two Atlanta races, and 17th in the spring event at Talladega.
That’s why we’re not backing Hamlin for the win on Sunday. And that’s why we’re picking Texas winner William Byron to beat Hamlin in a head-to-head matchup at -105 via DraftKings.
Everything we’ve said about Talladega is true. The pool of potential winners is enormous. The “Big One”—a massive wreck that wipes out a third of the field—is all but inevitable at NASCAR’s biggest oval.
But, more than any other driver, Brad Keselowski argues against the entropy and random nature of Talladega racing.
Keselowski has six Talladega victories on his resume, most among active drivers, and tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for second all-time (behind Dale Earnhardt Sr. with 10).
Driving for James Finch in 2009, Bad Brad picked up the first of his 35 NASCAR Cup wins at the 2.66-mile oval. Most recently, he won at Talladega in 2021.
Keselowski’s six victories defy statistical norms and suggest that the driver of the No. 6 Roush Fenway Keselowski Ford has a special knack for the mammoth track.
That’s why we’re picking him to win on Sunday at +900 via DraftKings.
Free play options
Special contests for newbies
Bet $5 on a Money Line, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
Wide range of betting options
Top notch customer service
Promo Code 'SPORTS'
$500 Free Bet
21+ | VA only | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-532-3500
Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]More info on Reid Spencer
© Rebel Penguin ApS 2023 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)
We support responsible gambling. 21+ Only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID 89744, with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number 117656-1, possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, an interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director of Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a Vendor Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.
Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various sportsbooks.