Best College Football Prop Bets Week 1 | CFB Picks & Predictions

Week 1 has arrived, which is the official start of college football season. Week 0 had a few exciting games, but the Saturday slate is loaded. This means we have plenty of props to choose from for the Week 1 slate. 

We do the hard work at WSN finding the value in games. You just need to check back every Friday for the latest prop bets for the weekend’s college football slate. Let’s get into the picks for Friday and Saturday. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jack Plummer Over 255.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Georgia Tech

Jack Plummer is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the country. Sam Hartman gets all the praise for being a 24-year-old quarterback in college football, but Plummer is 23 years old and will turn 24 on October 21. 

Age and experience is everything in the first few weeks of the college football season. He has 943 attempts over four seasons in college. He played three years at Purdue and one year at Cal before transferring to Louisville in the offseason. 

Plummer threw for 3095 yards last season with a 21:9 TD to INT ratio. He was a very efficient pocket passer, and we believe this success will translate to the Cardinals in 2023. Louisville is favored by 7.5 points to open the season, but we don’t expect this game to be a blowout. 

Plummer’s passing prop is listed at 255.5 passing yards, and if he plays in four quarters, we like the over to hit. Georgia Tech had the third-worst defense in the ACC last season. They allowed 401.6 yards per game, and 212.4 through the air. 

Passing defense was a slight strength, but we believe Louisville will work in a lot of play-action. This will lead to Plummer going over his total to begin the season. 

Michael Penix Jr. Over 310.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Boise State

Michael Penix Jr. is on the Heisman watch list this season, and he is one of the most dangerous pocket passers in the country. Penix Jr. threw for 4,641 yards last season with 31 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.

The Washington Huskies will host the Boise State Broncos to begin the season, and Penix’s passing total is high. His number is listed at 310.5 passing yards, and he went over this total in nine of 12 regular season games last season in 2022.

Boise State is a 14.5 point underdog against the tenth-ranked Huskies, but if any team can keep it close, it’s the Broncos. Boise State is very good on defense as they allowed 160 yards per game through the air last year. However, we’re still looking at an over for Penix Jr. in the opener.  

We believe he is going to hit this based on pure volume alone. Penix is going to throw the ball 35-50 times in this game, so look for him to go over the total, despite Boise State’s strong passing defense. 

Quinn Ewers Under 235.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs Rice

Quinn Ewers is in one of the toughest situations in the country in 2023. He is the starting quarterback at Texas, where the pressure couldn’t be higher, and Arch Manning is his backup. The Manning name is worth a lot of money, as Arch is already one of the highest-paid NIL athletes in the country. There are also reports that Manning is outplaying Ewers, and could be in line to take over the starting job if things go south. Texas is going to dominate Rice, and Ewers won’t be in the contest too long. Look for Steve Sarkisian to give Manning some reps in this game. 

This combined with the fact that Ewers wasn’t great through the air last season is a reason to take the under on his total. In the first game of 2022 against Louisiana Monroe, Ewers threw for 225 yards in a 52-10 win. 

The quarterback only went over this total twice in nine regular season games. He threw for 369 yards in the Alamo Bowl against Washington, but this wasn’t his norm. Texas should throw the ball more without Bijan Robinson, but there are too many signs pointing to an under in this contest.