The Ohio State Buckeyes are the current betting favorite to win the National Championship
Michigan has won the last three games in a row against the Buckeyes
The Wolverines secondary ranks below league average in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness
After winning the last three games in their heated rivalry, the Michigan Wolverines streak may come to an end as they enter the weekend listed as a sizable underdog. Especially with the Ohio State Buckeyes firing on all cylinders as they are currently the betting favorite to win the National Championship and are coming off of a dominant 38-15 win over the 10th ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Michigan | +20.5 (-110) | +900 | Over 43.5 (-110) |
Ohio State | -20.5 (-110) | -1600 | Under 43.5 (-110) |
My Pick: Ohio State -20.5 (-110) at Caesars
With the Wolverines struggling to generate offensive production, Michigan’s offense may be in for a long day as they are set to face off against a Buckeyes defense who ranks top-20 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives. Getting into scoring territory will be a struggle for Michigan, giving the Buckeyes an opportunity to pull away on the scoreboard while their own offense torches the Wolverines underwhelming secondary.
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Since winning the National Championship in 2023-2024, the Michigan Wolverines have struggled to recapture last year’s success as they are currently 6-5 and have no chance of making the 12 team playoff. While the Wolverines postseason hopes are tied to a lower tier bowl game, they can at least give their fans some satisfaction by playing spoiler to their heated rivals and ruin the Buckeyes chances of making the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Michigan, it may be near impossible to upset the Buckeyes as they are severely outmatched on both sides of the ball. Especially when they are on offense as their one dimensional unit will struggle to move down the field at a consistent rate against a Buckeyes defense who ranks top-20 in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives. Without a productive pass attack, the Buckeyes will be allowed to stack the box at a heavy rate to help shut down the Wolverines ground game.
When on defense, Michigan will be hard pressed to slow down the Buckeyes as their secondary is tasked with having to defend against a pass attack who ranks 10th overall in Pass Success Rate. That spells disaster for Michigan’s back end as the Wolverines struggle in coverage, entering the contest ranked below league average in Def Pass Success Rate, PPA, and Explosiveness. Will Johnson is also still listed as doubtful, making the Wolverines secondary even more vulnerable while without their lock down corner.
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Even with wins over Penn State and Indiana, the Ohio State Buckeyes still need to win on Saturday should they want to secure a berth for the Big Ten Conference Championship. With a win, the Buckeyes would get the opportunity to avenge their loss against the Oregon Ducks while also battling for a bye in the first round of the college football playoff.
A lot is on the line this Saturday and it all starts with Ohio State having to take care of business against their rivals from up north. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, they will have the opportunity to string together a dominant win over the Wolverines as their offense should face minimal resistance in their efforts of getting into the red zone. With Will Howard in a position to pick apart the Wolverines secondary, that should stretch out their coverage to help create higher quality rushing lanes for their running backs to exploit.
With their offense in a position to thrive, it will be up to the Buckeyes defense to determine if they cover the spread. Luckily for Ohio State, their defense should force the Wolverines into early outs and stalled out drives as they get the benefit of stacking the box at a heavy rate with Davis Warren incapable of beating them over the top. Generating pass production has been a struggle for the Wolverines offense this season as they enter the contest ranked 93rd in Pass Success Rate and 106th in Pass PPA.
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When: Saturday, November 30
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
Where to Watch: FOX
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CB Will Johnson - Doubtful
TE Colston Loveland - Questionable
WR Reis Stocksdale - Questionable
OL Zen Michalski - Questionable
WR Nolan Baudo - Questionable
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