The Oregon Ducks are ranked first overall in the college football playoff rankings
Oregon’s quarterback Dillon Gabriel is still in contention for the prestigious Heisman award
Wisconsin’s defense ranks below league average in Def Success Rate, Finishing Drives, Havoc, and Explosiveness
With only two conference opponents remaining, the undefeated Oregon Ducks have a great opportunity to make the Big Ten Conference Championship in their first year in the conference. They have not secured a berth for the conference championship just yet as they need to take care of business against the Wisconsin Badgers in a matchup across the country. Fortunately for Oregon, their offense should have no issue with lighting up the scoreboard as Wisconsin’s defense severely underwhelms in all key defensive metrics.
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Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
Oregon | -14 (-115) | -650 | Over 52.5 (-105) |
Wisconsin | +14 (-105) | +450 | Under 52.5 (-115) |
My Pick: Oregon -14 (-115) at BetMGM
While the travel may leave Oregon prone to getting off to sluggish start, their offense gets the benefit of facing off against a defense who ranks below league in Def Success Rate, Havoc, Explosiveness, and Finishing Drives. Even when littered by injuries, the high powered Oregon offense should have no issue with getting into scoring position at a consistent rate. Factor in Wisconsin’s one dimensional offense being incapable of exploiting Oregon’s defensive weakness and the Ducks should be able to secure a sizable win over the Badgers.
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Aftering entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites to win the national championship, the Oregon Ducks have looked the part as they are currently undefeated and are ranked first overall in the college football playoff rankings. What the Ducks have been able to do since joining the Big Ten has been nothing short of remarkable, thwarting the Ohio State Buckeyes and making quick work of the rest of their conference opponents.
Heading into the weekend, the Ducks offense have the opportunity to light up the scoreboard as they get a favorable matchup against the lowly Wisconsin Badgers defense. Generating defensive production has been a struggle for Wisconsin this year as they currently rank 88th overall in Def Success Rate, 89th in Explosiveness, 102nd in Finishing Drives, and 123rd in Havoc.
Their lack of defensive production helps the Ducks offense avoid getting off to a sluggish start, increasing the likelihood they cover the two score spread as well as give Dillon Gabriel the opportunity to stay in contention for the Heisman award. Gabriel has helped turn Oregon into one of the more efficient passing offenses in the nation this season as the Ducks currently rank top-25 in Pass Success Rate and PPA. With Wisconsin also struggling to stop the big play, expect an uptick in Pass Play Explosiveness as well.
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It’s been a nightmare year for the Wisconsin Badgers as their season long outlook was doomed from the start after their quarterback Tyler Van Dyke tore his ACL in their matchup against Alabama. Their backup quarterback Braedyn Locke has struggled to keep Wisconsin competitive since getting the starting nod as the Badgers offense enters the weekend ranked 81st overall in Pass Success Rate, 94th in PPA, and 120th in Explosiveness.
Even without consistent production from their quarterback, the Badgers offense have still managed to run the ball at an efficient rate as they rank above league average in Rush Success Rate and PPA. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, they are incapable of exploiting Oregon’s weakness with defending against Explosiveness as the Badgers rank near dead last in Rush Explosiveness.
Especially when the Ducks front seven gets the opportunity to stack the box with no fear of Braedyn Locke burning them through the air. That will help Oregon drastically halt the Badgers offense when in the middle of the field, forcing them into early outs and stalled out drives before entering scoring territory. This also gives Oregon’s offense an uptick in their number of offensive possessions, increasing the amount of potential scoring opportunities as well.
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When: Saturday, November 16th
Where: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wisconsin
Where to Watch: NBC
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RB Jordan James - Questionable
WR Tez Johnson - Questionable
WR Kyler Kasper - Questionable
DB Jahlil Florence - Questionable
DB Khamari Terrell - Questionable
OL Marcus Harper - Questionable
OL Matthew Bedford - Questionable
WR Bryson Green - Doubtful
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