New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction: Mountain West Powerhouses Square Off

Written by: Tanner Kern
Published February 16, 2024
5 min read

Two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference collide Friday night when New Mexico goes on the road to face San Diego State. 

San Diego State has done well in the conference thus far with an 8-4 record. The Aztecs come into this game with an overall 19-6 record, winning three of their last four. They’ll look to stay hot against a dangerous New Mexico team. 

The Aztecs have continuously found ways to win the big games but could have trouble on Friday. 

New Mexico comes into this game with a slight advantage, as they have already beaten the Aztecs earlier in the season. 

The Aggies have held a top spot in the conference as they look for yet another tournament entry. New Mexico could be positioned for a March Madness run at 20-5 overall and 8-4 in the conference. 

This matchup will have a lot on the line, including conference bragging rights. Let’s break down the game and our best bets for the action.

New Mexico vs San Diego State Prediction

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Betting Odds for Friday, Feb. 16

New Mexico will be on the road in this matchup, and they have won as the visitors. They’ve won five of their eight away games. 

Meanwhile, San Diego State is undefeated at home. In the previous matchup between these two teams, New Mexico State outlasted San Diego State, 88-70, with 15 unanswered points late in the game. 

San Diego State opened as a 5.5-point favorite. The Aztecs are also a -240 favorite on the moneyline. 

This could potentially be the Aztecs’ first home loss of the year, putting New Mexico State in the Mountain West driver’s seat. 

Teams Spread Moneyline Total 
New Mexico Aggies +5.5 (-110) +180 Over 152.5 (-110)
San Diego State Aztecs -5.5 (-110) -240 Under 152.5 (-110)

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If Utah State gets beaten by Colorado State on Saturday, the winner of this matchup would be in first place in the conference. 

The Aggies are 14th in the country in scoring this season. They average 84.1 points per game, and there haven’t been many teams that have an answer for their fast-paced offense. New Mexico is also 15th in the country in steals, averaging just under ten a game.

Jaelen House and Donovan Dent have been a massive part of the Aggies' offense. House averages just under 16 points per game. However, he has failed to stay consistent from the field, with just a 38.2% shooting percentage. 

Dent also averages just shy of 16 points a game this season but has a 55% field-goal percentage coming into this matchup. He leads his team in assists, averaging 5.8 per game.

There’s no doubt that this team has the leadership and talent to get the win, but it won’t be easy against a tough San Diego State team. 

San Diego State is looking for its 13th home victory this season while keeping their undefeated streak alive. The Aztecs have been consistently great frequently, resulting in two Mountain West championships in the past three seasons. 

The Aztecs are 48th in the country in points allowed, with just 66.8 per game. While they are not ranked highly in any other category, San Diego State is among the most well-rounded teams in college basketball. 

Jaedon LeDee leads his team in points, averaging just over 20  per game. He also contributes eight rebounds on a nightly basis. 

LeDee scored 27 points on their way to a 12-point home win in their last game against Colorado State. The 6’9” senior out of Houston, Texas, will be relied on heavily all night. 

The Aztecs will look to slow the game down and have New Mexico play at their tempo. 

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New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction and Betting Pick

New Mexico vs. San Diego State should be competitive and exciting. 

The ESPN matchup predictor gives New Mexico State a 28.3% chance to win. That’s pretty surprising, given the offensive success the Aggies found in 2024. New Mexico has the team to keep this game close. 

The New Mexico offense will be too much for San Diego State and might overwhelm them throughout the game. This matchup will come down to which team can make their free throws. 

Both programs have found great success in every aspect of the game, but New Mexico has the advantage in many key categories. We will take the Aggies plus the points on Friday night. 

How to Watch New Mexico vs. San Diego State

  • When: Friday, Feb. 16th @ 10:00 PM ET

  • Where: Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA. 

  • TV: FS1

  • Streaming: Fox Sports

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Tanner Kern

Sports Betting Analyst & On-Air Host

Online Sports Betting
Tanner Kern has been working in the betting industry since 2020. He currently is a social media content creator at DraftKings and contributes to multiple sites in addition to WSN, including Forbes and VSiN. He is also the cohost of the podcast Ride the Line at WSN.
Nationality: American
Education: M.S in Sports Journalism
Favourite Sportsbook: Fanatics Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: Caesars Palace
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