Mountain West Tournament Predictions, Betting Odds, Favorites to Win 2024

• Utah State leads the Mountain West in point differential (+10.6)

• SDSU has made the championship game in nine of the last ten seasons

• The Rebels have won ten of their previous 11 games

With just days left in the men’s college basketball season, the Mountain West race is too close to call. There are currently four teams, all within a half-game of each other at the top of the standings, which could lead to multiple teams sharing the regular season Mountain West title.

The close race has bookmakers pulling odds off the board for the conference winner and holding off on posting any for the tournament.

While we wait for another thrilling season of Mountain West basketball to conclude, we’ll share insights into the three teams we see as favorites heading into next week’s conference tournament.

Mountain West Tournament Betting Odds

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Favorites to Win the 2024 Mountain West Tournament

Utah State Aggies (OFF)

The Aggies currently hold a half-game lead over three other teams in the Mountain West. Their success has come from their ability to score efficiently, ranking second in the conference in scoring (79.3 PPG) and first in field goal percentage (49.6%) despite ranking tenth in three-point percentage (32.4%). Utah State’s defense has been good enough to allow them to lead the Mountain West in point differential (+10.6).

The Aggies have four players averaging double-digit point totals, and three of them are making 49%+ of their shots from the field. They are led by forward Great Osobot (17.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.4 BPG), who has lived up to his impressive first name. After failing to earn a starting spot with Montana State for two seasons, the Englishmen transferred to Utah State and became one of the conference’s best players.

As good as this team is, we aren’t sold on them winning the Mountain West Tournament. The Aggies have impressive home wins against the conference’s top teams, but they have been blown out when facing them on the road. They have double-digit road losses to SDSU ( L 81-67), Colorado State (L 75-55), and New Mexico (L 99-86). They did manage road wins at UNLV (W 87-86) and Boise State ( W 90-84 OT), but they were both close.

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San Diego State Aztecs (OFF)

The Aztecs returned most of their roster from last season’s run to the National Championship Game, but the rest of the conference has dramatically improved. While their scoring is up, their defense lost a bit of the edge that helped them take down powerhouses in last year’s run. SDSU is currently ranked twenty-first in the country but is fifth in the Mountain West standings. The conference has won 21+ games six times, signaling that the Aztecs' path to a Mountain West title will be far more challenging than when they won it last season. 

SDSU’s regular season title hopes ended Tuesday after a 62-58 loss at UNLV. It was their second loss over their last four games, but it gave the Aztecs a statement win on the road. That has eluded the Aztecs this season, losing on the road to the other top seven teams in the conference.

We can discuss stats and previous matchups, but the most important thing to know about the Aztecs is their history in the Mountain West Tournament. The tournament moved to Las Vegas in 2007 and has been dominated by the Aztecs since. They have won five titles and been in the championship game a whopping 13 times. In fact, they have been to the tournament's final game in nine of the last ten seasons. 

While this Aztec team will face an uphill battle, it is hard to bet against a team with that track record.

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UNLV Rebels (OFF)

It is hard not to fall in love with this UNLV team. After starting the season with a measly 9-9 record, they have gone 10-1 since then. The run has vaulted them up the standings, putting them just a half-game behind the Aggies. The Rebels have impressive wins over Creighton, New Mexico (twice), Boise State, Colorado State, and San Diego State. Now, they will face rival Nevada for a game that could earn them the top seed in the Mountain West Tournament.

UNLV’s impressive run over its last 11 games is mainly due to its defense. It is allowing 61.2 points per game during its current run and 60 or fewer points in four of its previous five games. This is a vast improvement from the first half of the season when good offenses were trouncing them.

Thanks to their fantastic defense, SDSU will make the National Championship game. UNLV has been playing at that level since January 27, and they will have a lot to play for in next week’s tournament. Considering they will be on their home court, the Rebels will be a very attractive bet once the odds go up on BetRivers.

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Who Will Win the Mountain West Tournament - My Pick

UNLV Rebels (OFF)

After the regular season concludes, we will see what the odds look like, but we love the Rebels to win this year’s Mountain West Tournament. They are the hottest team in the conference, will be playing on their home court, and will be motivated to lock in their spot in the NCAA Tournament. 

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