Week 12 is one of the most exciting weeks of the year in the regular season—the week gives us Thanksgiving Day games.
Typically, we have just one Thursday game to focus on, but with three, we’ll offer up the best prop bet from each game you should make.
The game taking place on Thanksgiving Day include:
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
With that out, let’s dive into the best prop bet for each of these.
This isn’t great value at -165, but this is about as close to a lock as we’ve seen in quite some time.
In Week 11, Diggs didn’t have a target for quite some time before eventually catching four of five targets for under 50 yards and a score.
We could see him visibly upset and talking to his coaches on the sideline.
While he didn’t have as dominate of a game as we’ve seen from him prior, Diggs draws matchups against a Jeff Okudah-less Lions secondary. The outside cornerbacks in this game will be Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs—neither are very good.
Jacobs has only played outside corner in three games this season, and Oruwariye is one of the worst corners in the league, allowing four touchdowns and 75% of his targets to get caught.
Look for the Bills to get Diggs back to his typical double-digit target self (he’s had double-digit targets in six games) and rebound in a big way.
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Heading out on the road, the Giants will face a Cowboys secondary that allows less than 175 passing yards a game. The coverage unit has allowed 11 touchdowns this year, but the Giants' offense is much better suited for the running game.
Jones hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game this season and has only accomplished that three times all year. He’s had four games with zero touchdowns, including a three-week stretch from Week 3 to 5.
Getting a +150 price on an offense that doesn’t have any phenomenal receivers against a cornerback unit with someone like Trevon Diggs, coupled with this offense mainly relying on the ability of running back Saquon Barkley, is a chance worth taking.
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The Patriots have had a solid defense all year, headlined by Josh Uche, Deatrich Wise Jr., and Matthew Judon rushing the passer. This could pose well against a Vikings offensive line starting a new left tackle that’s forced to replace Christian Darrisaw, perhaps the best tackle in the league.
However, on the outside, the Patriots sport two cornerbacks on totally opposite ends of the spectrum—Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills.
Both corners line up on each side, but based on the splits of left and right cornerback, Jefferson should see more action against Mills per Pro Football Focus.
Mills has allowed 23 receptions on 40 targets, two scores, and over 13 yards per reception.
Jefferson had just three receptions of 33 yards last week. Back at home and favored, look for the Vikings to pummel Jefferson with targets and get him in the endzone.
Getting a plus price on Jefferson isn’t something that happens every day—take advantage.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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