Best Matthew Stafford Player Props for Rams vs. Bears in the NFC Conference Championship

• Matthew Stafford is listed as the betting favorite to win the MVP award

• Stafford has completed just 52.4% of his passes since the start of the playoffs

• The Seahawks defense currently leads the league in Def DVOA and in EPA

Since the start of the playoffs, Matthew Stafford has struggled to recapture the same success he had in the regular season as the betting favorite for the MVP award has converted just 52.4% of his throws. Heading into the NFC Conference Championship, Stafford’s struggles in the pocket are poised to persist as he faces off against the Seattle Seahawks who excel at creating pressure with just their defensive line.

Best Matthew Stafford Player Props for Rams vs. Seahawks

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Matthew Stafford Under 254.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even in the twilight years of his career, Matthew Stafford has still been able to play at an MVP award winning level as the Los Angeles Rams quarterback ranks in the top-5 in Quarterback EPA per Play. His ability to weave the ball through tight passing lanes while under pressure has played a major role in his success as Stafford also ranks above league average in Completion Percentage Over Expected.

Unfortunately for Stafford, negative regression looms large on Sunday night as he faces off against the Seattle Seahawks who reside near the top of the board in Def DVOA and in Pass Rush Win Rate. With their defensive line forcing Stafford out of the pocket shortly after the snap, he will be forced to throw on the run at a higher rate which will drastically lessen the quality of his passes.

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Matthew Stafford Under 22.5 Pass Completions (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Correlating this prop with the previously mentioned one, the Seahawks pressure will also give the Rams pass catchers less time in the open field to break away from the coverage, making it easier for them to keep a defender on their hips for the full duration of their routes. With more bodies at the point of contact, the probability of Stafford completing a pass declines which increases his chances of staying under the total on his Pass Completion prop.

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Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interception (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Seahawks capable of collapsing the pocket with just their defensive line, their linebackers are allowed to anchor in coverage at a higher rate. This will further lessen the width of Stafford’s passing lanes, increasing the amount of Havoc in his throws. For some more exposure, escalator bet Stafford’s Interception prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate overs at the best available odds.

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Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 Rush Attempts (-210) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Not only has Stafford struggled through the air since the start of the playoffs, but he has continued to underwhelm on the ground as he is currently averaging -0.5 Rushing Yard per game. Instead of extending plays with his legs, Stafford limits the amount of variance in scrambling situations by preferring to throw the ball out of harm's way which helps negate the possibility of him getting injured.

In a daunting matchup against Seattle, expect Stafford to continue to get bottled up as the Seahawks low Blitz Rate gives their linebackers the ability to recognize the run and crash down on him before he reaches the line of scrimmage. The Rams are also expected to play from behind per the current spread, lessening the chance of this prop getting burned by a few kneel downs late in the fourth quarter.

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Matthew Stafford 2025-2026 Postseason Stats

• Passing Yards: 562

• Passing Touchdowns: 3

• Completion Percentage: 52.4%

• Total Interceptions: 1

• Total Sacks: 5

• Average Yards per Throw: 6.7

• Passing Yards per Game: 281.0

• Quarterback Rating: 80.6

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