Monday Night Football Prop Bets Week 16: Fade the New Orleans Saints Front Seven

• Josh Jacobs is averaging 81.9 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry

• The Green Bay Packers have a one game lead over Washington for the sixth seed in the playoffs

• New Orleans defense ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards

Since signing with the Green Bay Packers in the offseason, Josh Jacobs has been a steady source of production for their offense as the star running back is averaging 81.9 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. He was the focal point of their offense while Jordan Love was dealing with an injury, keeping the Packers in contention for the playoffs. While a NFC North division title is out of reach, Jacobs production will still play a major role in their efforts of holding on to their wildcard spot in the NFC.

Against New Orleans, Jacobs will have the opportunity to run wild as he faces off against a front seven who ranks near dead last in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards. While Jacobs is in a position to thrive, the Saints Kendre Miller will find it tough to match his level of production as the Packers defense has excelled at stopping the run and may stack the box at a heavy rate with Spencer Rattler getting the starting nod at quarterback.

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Josh Jacobs Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After nearly running for 100 yards against the Seattle Seahawks, Josh Jacobs will have the opportunity to put together another dominant performance against the New Orleans Saints underwhelming front seven. Stopping the run has been an issue for the Saints this season as their defense ranks near dead last across the board in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, Success Rate, and Adjusted Line Yards.

The Saints also anchor their linebackers in coverage at one of the higher rates in the league, giving Jacobs higher quality rushing lanes in the trenches for him to exploit. The Green Bay Packers offensive line has also steadily improved in Run Block throughout the year as they enter the contest ranked 13th in Adjusted Line Yards. With his offensive line warding off contact, Jacobs will have plenty of opportunities to generate an explosive run which increases the chances of him clearing the over on his yardage prop.

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Jordan Love Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

While New Orleans has severely struggled with stopping the run, their secondary has excelled in coverage as the Saints back end ranks 12th in Def Pass DVOA, 9th in Def Pass EPA, and 6th in Def Pass Success Rate. Even with a deep group of pass catchers around him, Jordan Love will struggle to connect with his receivers while throwing into low quality passing lanes. Jacobs potentially receiving an uptick in carries also eats away at Love’s pass attempts, increasing the likelihood of him staying under this total.

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Kendre Miller Under 49.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at BetMGM Sportsbook 

With Alvin Kamara listed as doubtful on the Saints injury report, Kendre Miller is expected to receive a heavier workload. Unfortunately for Miller, the Saints backup running back will struggle to generate rush production as he faces off against a Packers front seven who ranks top-12 in Def Rush DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate. The Saints offensive line also does him no favors in regard to opening up higher quality rushing lanes as they enter the contest ranked 21st in Adjusted Line Yards.

With Spencer Rattler getting the start, the Packers defense may opt into the idea of stacking the box at a heavy rate to bottle up Miller while daring Rattler to throw over the top of them. By stacking the box, this allows the Packers defense to send more bodies towards the trenches to help plug up gaps and contain Miller at the line. While this does leave their corners on islands, the Saints pass attack will hardly threaten them as they rank well below league average in Pass DVOA, EPA, and Success Rate.

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