After Winnipeg comfortably won in regulation against the Detroit Red Wings, we go back to the well as they get another favorable matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets struggling to generate high quality Shots on Goal. Heading into Friday, the Blue Jackets front line ranks near dead last in both Expected Goals For in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play.
Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the night cap as the New Jersey Devils have the opportunity to pad their lead at the top of the Metropolitan division standings against the reeling Calgary Flames. After Calgary started the year ranked top-5 in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against, they now rank below league average in both metrics after a cold stretch of play.
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After a 9-1-0 start to the season, the Winnipeg Jets odds to win the Presidents’ Trophy have steadily grown as they comfortably lead the league in Points Percentage. Their defense continues to rank near the top of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations as their back line smothers opposing shot attempts. In the off chance their opponent does get one towards the net, reigning Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck has had no issue with walling them off by averaging just 2.12 Goals Against per game.
Their back line will have a major advantage heading into Friday as the Blue Jackets offense ranks dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations by averaging just 2.64 Expected Goals per game. The Jets defensive production was on full display on Tuesday against the Red Wings, holding their explosive offense to an Expected Goal of 1.63. Even if backup goalie Eric Comrie gets the starting nod, he has quietly played very well by generating a Save Percentage of .915 in two games played.
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While a majority of the Blue Jackets have struggled to generate offensive production, their defenseman Zach Werenski has continued to succeed in his efforts of sending the puck towards the net from their back line. Even with a low mark in Expected Goals, he has still been successful with generating a high amount of Shots on Goal by averaging 3.5 per game. With his front line having their hands full against the Jets coverage, expect Werenski to be aggressive from a distance in an attempt to stretch out their defense.
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While the Winnipeg Jets currently lead the league with 18 total points, the New Jersey Devils are hot on their tails with 16. Granted, the Devils have played in more games after a two game series against the Buffalo Sabres in the Global Series, meaning they will need to continue to win at a high rate in order to keep their spot near the top of the standings. Fortunately for New Jersey, they catch Calgary at the perfect time as the Flames are in the midst of a cold stretch of play.
Since starting the first week of the season ranked near the top of the board in Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against in All Situations, the Flames now rank well below league average as of writing. Their struggles with generating production on both sides of the ice are expected to persist as the Devils rank top-4 in both previously mentioned metrics. With no threat of the Flames exploiting the Devils regression in net, expect New Jersey to steadily build up a lead and cover the puck line.
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As for who will do the scoring for the Devils, Nico Hischier continues to excel at generating a high mark in Expected Goals and Shots on Goal while leading the team with 10 total goals. With his left wing Timo Meier commanding a majority of attention from opposing back lines, this has opened up gaps in coverage for Hischier to exploit for high quality scoring opportunities.
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