Best NHL Prop Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Golden Knights

After going down 0-4 in game three of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Carolina Hurricanes swapped in Brandon Bussi for Frederik Andersen, giving them the spark they needed to tie it up and send it to overtime. With Bussi expected to get the start while protected by a back line who excels in coverage, negative regression looms large over the Vegas Golden Knights, keeping them under their team total. This dramatic shift in momentum has completely shaken up the latest Stanley Cup odds.

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Carolina Hurricanes vs. Vegas Golden Knights - Prop Bets (8:00 PM, EST)

With Brandon Bussi playing at a high level, expect the Vegas Golden Knights to struggle to find the back of the net, resulting in a low scoring affair.

Vegas Golden Knights Team Total Under 3 (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Before being sidelined in the playoffs, the Carolina Hurricanes Brandon Bussi was able to thrive during the regular season, averaging just 2.47 Goals Against per game in 39 starts. The coverage he receives from his back line played a major role in his success, anchoring behind a group who currently leads the league in Expected Goals Against in All Situations.

Heading into game four, expect Bussi to recapture the same success he had earlier in the year as he faces off against the Vegas Golden Knights who field just five players who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game, lacking the versatility that is needed to break through their coverage. Especially with his back line lowering the quality of their Shots on Goal, making it easier to wall them off at a high rate. If the Golden Knights team total drops down to 2.5, then reduce the size of your wager.

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Logan Stankoven Anytime Goal Scorer (+225) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the playoffs, Logan Stankoven has been able to consistently pressure the net, averaging 0.54 Expected Goals and 3.13 Shots on Goal per game. With the Golden Knights back line harshly regressing per their plummeting marks in Expected Goals Against, the width of Stankoven’s shooting lanes will drastically widen, improving the quality of his Shots on Goal in front of the net.

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Sebastian Aho Anytime Goal Scorer (+290) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though Sebastian Aho has failed to score in the Stanley Cup Finals, he has still been able to generate high quality Shots on Goal, averaging 0.26 Expected Goals per game. With Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov pulling defensive attention away from him, expect Aho to generate a higher volume of Shots on Goal in front of the crease, improving his chances of scoring.

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