Iowa Senate Odds 2026: Ashley Hinson vs. Josh Turek Predictions

With Republican incumbent Joni Ernst not running for reelection, there is a Senate seat in Iowa up for grabs in the 2026 midterms. The race is being contested between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek. Keep reading to get a full breakdown of which candidate is leading the race, why Iowa’s seat matters in the national picture, and how you can trade contracts on the Iowa Senate race and any other election during the 2026 midterms.

Who’s Winning the Iowa Senate Race?

As election day draws closer, Hinson is maintaining a lead in the Iowa race. According to Kalshi, a well-known and among the best US prediction markets, Hinson has a 55% chance of winning the race. However, that number has shrunk from earlier in the year when she had a better than 80% probability of winning. Turek has slowly but surely closed the gap, giving himself a fighting chance to win. The latest polls tell a similar story. An October 3 survey from The New York Times and Siena University shows Hinson with a narrow 48-47 lead over Turek, meaning both candidates will likely enter election day believing they have a chance to win but knowing that nothing is guaranteed.

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Iowa Senate winner?

In 2026

• Republican party 59%
• Democratic party 41%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Iowa Senate Race Explained

With Ernst announcing last September that she wouldn’t seek a third term in the Senate, Republicans elected Hinson as their nominee to replace her. Hinson is about to finish her third term in the U.S. House of Representatives and earned over 74% of the vote in the Republican primary, defeating Jim Carlin by a wide margin. She now hopes to move from the House to the Senate.

Meanwhile, Turek is currently serving at the state level in the Iowa House of Representatives. He was elected in Iowa’s 20th district for the first time in 2022, winning by just six votes. His successful reelection bid in 2024 was won with a five-point margin. In the Democratic primary, Turek earned over 62% of the vote to defeat Zach Wahls and earn the Democratic nomination for Ernst’s empty Senate seat.

Why the Iowa Result Decides Senate Control

Iowa has been a safe Republican stronghold in recent years, with Donald Trump winning the state by 13 points in 2024. However, with Ernst not seeking reelection, Republicans lost a candidate with good name recognition in the state, making that Senate seat vulnerable. Turek represents a district in Iowa that has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1968, so he’s proven that he can win in places that have been historically dominated by Republicans. That makes him a bona fide threat to win the Senate seat in Iowa, giving Democrats an unexpected pathway to flipping the four Senate seats they need to earn a majority.

How to Trade the Iowa Senate Market

While trading on the Iowa Senate race or any other midterm election at the best political betting sites, both candidates will have a value attached to them between 1¢ and 99¢. This number is the price per share on a contract for that specific candidate. The number also indicates the implied probability of that candidate winning. The closer to 99¢, the more likely that candidate is to win, whereas candidates closer to 1¢ are considered long shots to win by the market. After the election, contracts for the winning candidate resolve at $1. Therefore, the profit per share is the difference between $1 and the price of the original contract. For example, if you trade a contract for 60¢, the profit will be 40¢ per share if that candidate wins.

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The rising price of fuel and fertilizer that are critical to the agricultural economy in Iowa have become prominent talking points in the state’s Senate race. Hinson’s once-safe lead has shrunk in part because of her association with Trump and Republican policies that many believe are responsible for those high prices. That’s making it difficult for Hinson to hang on to the Republican base. If she can hold the base, she should be able to win. However, if Turek can continue to make inroads with independents and Republicans who aren’t content with their own party, he will have a chance to pull off an unlikely win for the Democrats.