Ohio Senate Odds 2026: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted Predictions

The special election for a spot in the U.S. Senate representing Ohio between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown has become one of the focal points for both parties during the 2026 midterm elections. On this page, we’ll take a deep dive into the state of the race, why the result matters, and how you can trade event contracts on this race and any other Senate race this election season.

Who’s Winning the Ohio Senate Race?

With election day quickly approaching, Brown is the current favorite to win the Ohio Senate seat over Husted. Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets, is giving Brown a 64% chance of being the eventual winner, compared to just 36% for Husted. The race had been tight all summer, with Kalshi’s markets indicating the race could easily go either way. However, starting in the second week of September, Brown’s lead began to grow based on the market’s perception. Meanwhile, Brown holds a slight lead in the polls. According to a poll from The New York Times and Siena University from October 3, Brown holds a 49-46 lead over Husted.

Probabilities below are from Kalshi. Sign up for an account with Kalshi promo code WSN to claim one of the best prediction market bonuses available today: Trade $25 and Get $25.

Ohio Senate winner?

In 2026

• Democratic party 60%
• Jon Husted 41%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Ohio Senate Race Explained

Husted is the incumbent for this Ohio Senate seat. The seat was previously held by JD Vance, who had to resign in January 2025 when he was elected vice president. Husted was appointed to the Senate by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine. However, Husted must run in a special election to serve out the remainder of Vance’s original term. The winner between Husted and Brown will fulfill the last two years of Vance’s term, meaning they will have to run for reelection again in 2028.

Husted now has close to two years of experience serving in the US Senate after previously serving as the Lieutenant Governor of Ohio. Brown, meanwhile, previously served three terms as Ohio’s Senator. He first won his seat in 2006, defeating DeWine, and subsequently won reelection in 2012 and 2018. However, he lost his reelection bid in 2024 to Bernie Moreno, who is Ohio’s other Senator. Brown is now using this special election as his way back into the Senate after defeating Ron Kincaid in the Democratic primary.

Why the Ohio Result Decides Senate Control

Democrats need to flip at least four Senate seats currently held by Republicans in order to gain a majority. They have identified this Ohio special election as one race they have a chance to win. With Husted being in the Senate by appointment and Brown being a three-term Senator before his 2024 loss, Democrats believe this is a race they can realistically win. That makes Ohio an important part of their hopes to flip at least four Senate seats during the midterms.

How to Trade the Ohio Senate Market

If you plan to trade event contracts on the Ohio Senate race, you will see that each candidate has a value attached between 1¢ and 99¢ at the best political betting sites. This is the price per share of a contract on that candidate to win. This number also represents the implied probability of them winning based on the market’s perception, among other factors. The closer to 99¢ a candidate is, the more likely they are to win the race. If the candidate you choose wins, the contract resolves for $1, with the profit being the difference between $1 and the price of the contract. Therefore, if you trade on a candidate for 60¢, if they win, the profit will be 40¢ per share.

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Even though the market believes Brown has a better chance of winning the Ohio Senate race, the polls indicate an election that could go either way. Right now, Brown is relying on his name recognition, support from independents, and historic trends of the president’s party losing midterm elections. Of course, Brown lost his Senate seat to a Republican two years ago, and as long as Husted remains strong with Ohio’s Republican base, he has a chance to win.