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UFC 279 Predictions: Chimaev Will Go Toe-To-Toe With Legend Nate Diaz

Written by: Ryan Bristlon
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
  • A non-title fight headlines UFC 279
  • Tony Ferguson makes the move up to welterweight
  • Holland vs Rodriguez set at a catchweight

UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz

The odds for this match are provided by the FanDuel sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to FanDuel to place a bet.

Fighter Odds
Khamzat Chimaev -1000
Nate Diaz +630
Fighter Odds
Li Jingliang -295
Tony Ferguson +235
Fighter Odds
Kevin Holland -196
Daniel Rodriguez +158
Fighter Odds
Irene Aldana -186
Macy Chiasson +144
Fighter Odds
Johnny Walker +152
Ion Cutelaba -196

UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz – Picks & Predictions

Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz – Welterweight Division

Khamzat Chimaev (-1000)

Li Jingliang vs Tony Ferguson – Welterweight Division

Li Jingliang (-295)

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez – Catchweight (180-pounds)

Daniel Rodriguez (+158)

Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson – Women’s Bantamweight Division

Macy Chiasson (+144)

Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba – Light Heavyweight Division

Johnny Walker (+152)

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Ufc 279 Chimaev Vs Diaz

Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz – Welterweight Division

Khamzat Chimaev TALE OF THE TAPE Nate Diaz
28 Age 37
6 ft. 2 in. Height 6 ft.
75 in. Reach 76 in.
11-0 Record 20-13

In what is Khamzat Chimaev’s first UFC pay-per-view main event, the undefeated fighter will enter the octagon as the biggest betting favorite on the main card by a mile. He is listed as -1000!

He will go toe-to-toe with UFC legend Nate Diaz, who will be fighting in his fourth non-title PPV main event.

Diaz last fought against the now-welterweight champion Leon Edwards. Despite coming close to a knockout in the fifth round, it was Edwards that was awarded the unanimous decision victory at UFC 263 last June.

Undefeated as a professional, Chimaev has wins in both the UFC welterweight and middleweight divisions. After finishing all four of his UFC fights, Chimaev’s most recent fight proved to be his toughest test.

He last fought Gilbert Burns at UFC 273 this past April. Burns brought Chimaev to a judge’s decision for the first time in his career. Chimaev was awarded the decision victory and the two men were awarded fight of the night honors.

Chimaev will stand two inches taller but Diaz will have a one-inch reach advantage.

To find out how to place your bets for this welterweight main event, check out our ultimate UFC betting guide to get started.

Li Jingliang vs Tony Ferguson – Welterweight Division

Li Jingliang TALE OF THE TAPE Tony Ferguson
34 Age 38
6 ft. Height 6 ft.
72 in. Reach 76.5 in.
19-7 Record 25-7

After winning 12-fights in a row, going undefeated for roughly six years, Tony Ferguson now finds himself amidst a four-fight losing streak.

Ferguson’s last bout, which took place at UFC 274 this past May, came against Michael Chandler – who knocked Ferguson out with a front kick in the second round.

His fight against Li Jingliang this Saturday will be Ferguson’s first welterweight bout under the UFC banner, after having competed as a lightweight since 2011.

Li Jingliang recently bounced back from a loss to Khamzat Chimaev with a second-round TKO over Muslim Salikhov this past July. He earned a performance of the night bonus.

Listed as a -295 favorite, Jingliang will still find himself at a reach disadvantage of 4.5-inches.

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez – Catchweight (180-pounds)

Kevin Holland TALE OF THE TAPE Daniel Rodriguez
29 Age 35
6 ft. 3 in. Height 6 ft.
81 in. Reach 74 in.
23-7, 1 no-contest Record 16-2

Believed to be scheduled to fight another opponent in October, Kevin Holland now finds himself matched up against Daniel Rodriguez with just two-weeks notice.

The two welterweights will fight at a catchweight of 180-pounds due to the short amount of time to prepare.

Holland, who moved down to the UFC welterweight division at the start of 2022 has gone 2-0 since the weight change. He most recently submitted Tim Means this past June.

Rodriguez is riding a three-fight winning streak. His most recent bout came against Kevin Lee, whom he defeated via unanimous decision last August.

Holland will stand three inches taller and have a reach advantage of seven inches. He is listed at -196.

Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson – Women’s Bantamweight Division

Irene Aldana TALE OF THE TAPE Macy Chiasson
34 Age 31
5 ft. 9 in. Height 5 ft. 9 in.
69 in. Reach 72 in.
13-6 Record 8-2

Although coming off of a first-round TKO win over Yana Kunitskaya, Irene Aldana has not fought since UFC 264 in July 2021.

Her opponent, Macy Chiasson, is coming off of a split-decision win over Norma Dumont that took place at UFC 274 this past May.

Chiasson, an Ultimate Fighter tournament winner, will have a three-inch reach advantage in the fight against Aldana. Despite this, she is a +144 underdog.

Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba – Light Heavyweight Division

Johnny Walker TALE OF THE TAPE Ion Cutelaba
30 Age 28
6 ft. 5 in. Height 6 ft. 1 in.
82 in. Reach 75 in.
18-7 Record 16-7-1, 1 no-contest

Two light heavyweights kick off the main card and both are in need of a big win.

Just 1-3-1 over his last five fights, Ion Cutelaba most recently succumbed to a first-round guillotine choke at the hands of Ryan Spann this past May.

Johnny Walker is 1-4 over his last five fights, having lost his last two in a row. His last fight took place in February when he was knocked out by Jamahal Hill in the first round.

Walker is the taller man and will also enjoy a significant seven-inch reach advantage. However, at -196, Cutelaba is the favorite to win according to oddsmakers.

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How to Watch UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz

Event UFC 279: Chimaev vs Diaz
Location T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada
Time Saturday, September 10, 10 PM EST
How to watch UFC Fight Pass, PPV, ESPN+
21+ | Terms and conditions apply
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Ryan Bristlon

Sports Betting Analyst

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Ryan Bristlon is a Canadian writer currently residing in Hamilton, Ontario. He studied print and broadcast journalism at Humber College and has been a lifelong fan of hockey, the NHL in general, and UFC.
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