Knocking off four-time World Cup winners Germany, now Paraguay is tasked with pulling off another upset against tournament favourites France in the Round of 16. Les Bleus enter this fixture having won four straight World Cup matches.
France enter this Round of 32 encounter as clear favorites, with current World Cup odds and bookmakers assigning them an 85% probability of securing victory within 90 minutes.
Location: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, United States
Date & Time: Saturday, July 4, 5 pm ET
How to Watch: FOX
| Paraguay vs. France | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | +1800 | +1700 | +1600 | +1300 |
| Draw | +600 | +600 | +600 | +550 |
| Away | -600 | -550 | -500 | -530 |
| Disclaimer: The odds listed in this table are accurate at the time of writing and will fluctuate as game day approaches. | ||||
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Below are our three top tips for Paraguay vs. France, including two straight bets and one same-game parlay.
France -1.5
Not only are the two-time World Cup winners finishing in the win column, but they’re also doing so by wide margins, which is why we are backing France to win by two or more goals in the spread markets.
All of France’s four victories at the 2026 World Cup have featured margins of two or more goals. With a world-class attacking unit on the pitch or bench, they will have more than it takes to cover the spread on Saturday.
Michael Olise to score or assist anytime
The Bayern Munich employee is having a solid tournament so far, cataloging five assists in four World Cup appearances.
Olise is France's primary creative outlet in attack. His vision, precise passing, and ability to break down compact, low-block defenses make him a key asset against teams that defend deep. Rather than relying purely on pace, he consistently creates high-quality scoring chances by picking out teammates in dangerous areas.
France to win and over 2.5 total goals
France are heavy favorites for a reason, upsets happen, but they should take care of business in the park within the 90-minute regulation. Across all competitive matches, France has suffered only three setbacks in its last 20.
Les Bleus are scoring at a blistering pace, particularly at the World Cup, where they've set a tournament record by scoring three or more goals in five consecutive matches. France's attack has been remarkably clinical, outperforming its underlying metrics with 13 goals from an expected goals (xG) total of just 9.2.
Gustavo Alfaro and his men had little time to celebrate their historic win over Germany in the Round of 32. Winning on penalties, Paraguay won its second-ever knockout stage match.
Despite reaching the Round of 16, Paraguay have won only once in 90 minutes across four attempts. What they lack in offence, only scoring three goals so far, Paraguay make up for it in playing in a tight, compact defensive system.
Paraguay's brightest attacking threat could be unavailable on Saturday, with Julio Enciso listed as doubtful after leaving the win over Germany in some visible discomfort. The 22-year-old has been instrumental in Paraguay's World Cup run, scoring once and providing two assists.
Didier Deschamps and his men look unplayable at the moment, cruising through each World Cup affair with ease. France made quick work of Sweden in their Round of 32 contest, winning 3-0, retaining 61 percent of the ball possession while amassing 25 total shot attempts.
Les Bleus captain Kylian Mbappé is having a masterclass in this 2026 edition of the World Cup. The 27-year-old striker has already collected six goals, tying him in the Golden Boot race with Messi. Mbappé’s two-goal performance against Sweden saw him make history, scoring the most knockout stage goals with 10.
Historically, Paraguay have yet to dethrone France in the head-to-head battle, as they haven’t beaten them in four instances. The most recent encounter was in a 2017 friendly, which France dominated with a 5-0 win.
The key question is whether Paraguay's disciplined defence can withstand France's pace and attacking creativity. If Paraguay can keep the match tight into the second half, they'll have an opportunity to frustrate the French and stay in contention. However, if France finds an early breakthrough, their attacking firepower could make it difficult for Paraguay to mount a comeback.
We sense this match could turn into Paraguay's opening game against the United States, where the French will pick apart the opposition backline. France are rolling; they just look like a team that’s destined to go on a deep run once again with a world-class roster. Even if they have to go to the bench to turn things around, France won’t hesitate as the talent drop off from the starting XI to the substitutes isn’t far behind.
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