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FURIA and OG will butt heads on Monday in one of the eight upper bracket opening-round matches of the IEM Dallas 2023. FURIA are ranked 12th in the world, and OG are ranked 17h, so there isn’t a big difference in quality between the two sides. This is also reflected in the odds settled on by the bookmakers.
However, the bookmakers don’t seem to have considered the recent form. FURIA are in a bit of a crisis at the moment with five losses in their last five matches. The bookmakers might’ve been a bit kinder to OG if it wasn't for FURIA's reputation. On the other hand, OG has won their last two matches and is looking fresh heading into this tournament.
To be fair to FURIA, they beat OG in the IEM Rio last November 19-16. The only other match between the two sides ended in overtime. Both matches were quite tight, so we expect this one to follow a similar pattern. However, the form of the two sides heading into this tie might be the difference this time out. OG are also great value for a win, so they’re well worth a punt.
Teams ranked in the top-15 rarely go on losing runs, never mind a five-game losing run. It’s even more surprising because they won six games on the trot just before this losing streak. Of course, the teams they faced in this losing run are some of the best in the world, but their confidence levels will still be shot by this run of losses. Momentum is a massive factor at any point in the season, but it’s an even bigger factor just before a big tournament like the IEM Dallas.
Despite the lack of form, FURIA have some strengths that will help them in this tie and the rest of the tournament. They have a pretty strong record on every map bar Anubis, which is a tricky map for most teams, including OG. They have a win rate of 50% or more on four maps in the last three months, which is highly impressive. They haven’t played on Overpass in the last three months, so this map is a bit of a question mark.
Another positive is the form of the star player KSCERATO. The team’s form doesn’t seem to have negatively affected his performance. He has averaged 0.73 kills per round in the last three months, with just 0.58 deaths per match. He also has an impressive KAST of 75% and deals an astounding 82 damage per round. There aren’t many players on the CS:GO circuit that are this destructive.
OG’s Regali has been one of the most-talked-about players in recent months, but even he doesn’t put up such impressive numbers. If all things are equal, FURIA are the better team. They have a good record on most maps, a true superstar on their roster, and a superior head-to-head record, but their odds aren’t as valuable, and the lack of form is a serious worry.
OG won’t get to meet FURIA at a better time. Their preparation for the tournament looks good with two wins in their last two matches and three in their last five. They’re playing an out-of-form side, and their star player is in the form of his life.
Regali, the 20-year-old Romanian, has been on fire lately. He has been a killing machine with 0.79 kills per round in the last three months while managing a respectable deaths-per-round average of 0.60. He also has an impressive KAST percentage of 72.7% and deals 76.1 damage per round. All the pre-match talk has been dominated by Regali’s form and if he can step up to the plate in this match and tournament.
This isn’t a surprise because OG don’t have a lot going for them in this tie besides Regali. They aren’t the most flexible team, with a win rate of over 50% on just two maps: Mirage and Ancient. The only other advantage they have when it comes to maps is some familiarity with Overpasss.
OG have had two tight encounters against FURIA before. One match went into overtime, and they lost the other 16-19, so there’s nothing to be intimidated by. They can’t take FURIA lightly despite FURIA’s recent drop in form. Matches in tournaments like the IEM Dallas are decided by the finest of margins, and they have to channel FURIA’s lack of form and their good form constructively. We think it’s a good time to pick OG, as they’ve got really valuable odds, and this tie is a lot more even in terms of quality than the bookmakers are suggesting.
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
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