Image for Dave Tindall Dave Tindall - October 14, 2022

The Genesis Invitational Predictions, Picks & Odds

  • All of the world’s top 10 head to Pacific Palisades in LA 
  • Riviera Country Club plays host for the 59th time
  • Golden State native Max Homa defends at the famed California track 

The Genesis Invitational Odds

The odds for this tournament are provided by Caesars Sportsbook. Click on the odds below to head to Caesars Sportsbook and place a bet.

Player Odds
Jon Rahm +900
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Patrick Cantlay +1200
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Dustin Johnson +1600
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Justin Thomas +1600
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Collin Morikawa +1800
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Rory McIlroy +2200
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Scottie Scheffler +2500
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Cameron Smith +2500
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Xander Schauffele +2500
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Will Zalatoris +2500
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Hideki Matsuyama +2500
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The Genesis Invitational Picks

Dustin Johnson has a phenomenal record at Riviera and his game is trending towards another victory. Back him to win at +1600 with Caesars Sportsbook.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns both made the top five last year but the Englishman returns in far better form. He can win a 72-hole match at -120 DraftKings Sportsbook.

Alex Noren is a great fit for the course and finished T6 in Phoenix last week. Back the Swede for his third top 20 in four Riviera starts at +250 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Genesis Invitational Picks

The Genesis Invitational Predictions

It seems right that the PGA Tour’s closest event to Hollywood should feature a star-studded cast.

And that’s definitely the case at Riviera this week as all of the top 10 in the world rankings make their way to the famed LA track.

California native Max Homa thrilled the crowds last year when scoring a surprise win and when there has been a shock result in this event, the champion has had local connections. But generally, this classy course produces classy winners.

Look at the trophy and it’s packed with major champions, especially in the last 25 years. As well as Nick Faldo and Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott are dual winners while Bubba Watson has hoisted the silverware three times.

Add in victories for Mike Weir (twice), Fred Couples, Craig Stadler and Dustin Johnson and there’s an awful lot of Masters winners who have won at Riviera.

A likely explanation is that both Riviera and Augusta National are known as ‘second shot’ courses where precise approach play is a huge key.

Homa proved that once again last year when ranking third for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Perhaps this is where some order is restored after a run of three weeks on the PGA Tour when we’ve seen a trio of first-time winners – Scottie Scheffler at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Tom Hoge at Pebble Beach and Luke List at Torrey Pines.

Americans have a great record here but when they don’t win, Aussies tend to pop up.  Again there’s some logic: Riviera has Kikuyu in the fairways and rough, a strain of grass unusual in the United States but common in Australia.

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DJ Can Hit the Right Notes

This column has had some great success in tipping Dustin Johnson and it looks like another obvious chance to cash in.

The Masters link leads us to DJ after his win at Augusta National in 2020 and numerous other big finishes in the year’s opening major. But that’s mere supporting evidence as the main reason to wager on Johnson this week is his incredible course form.

He won at Riviera in 2017 and must wonder how he hasn’t put his name on the trophy more than once having also finished second twice, third and fourth twice.

In fact, go back to 2009 and he has an incredible 10 top 10s in 13 visits.

While course form makes him a no-brainer, his current form isn’t as convincing.

However, the rust is coming off fast. DJ skipped the first three events of 2022 and opened up with a tied 25th in the Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January.

He kicked on again with tied eighth in an elite field at the Saudi International so hopefully his game is trending towards another win.

Johnson’s Approach/GIR figures look decent once more and he’s the headline pick at +1600 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Fitzpatrick Can Outscore Burns

Last week’s matchbet landed and it also worked out in our favor in this event last year when we went with Matt Fitzpatrick to beat Jordan Spieth.

And it’s Englishman Fitzpatrick who is the selection once again: this time to outscore Sam Burns.

Fitzpatrick is in flying form. He ended last season with a bang on the other side of the pond when winning October’s Andalucia Masters in Spain and finishing his year with second place at the DP World Tour Championship.

He’s continued that momentum in 2022 with a pair of top 10s in his first two PGA Tour starts: tied sixth at Pebble Beach and tied 10th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open last week.

Now he comes to a course which really suits him. Fitzpatrick had a first look at Riviera in 2020 and finished tied 30th while he returned last year to share fifth place. His irons look dialled in and there’s every chance he pushes for another top 10.

Burns took the eye at Riviera 12 months ago when landing in third place but his form coming in this time is very different.

Last year, Burns had recorded top 25s at Torrey Pines and Phoenix so his game was sharp. This year he’s missed the cut in both those events.

Take Fitzpatrick at -120 with DraftKings to beat Burns over 72 holes.

Noren Can Crack the Top 20

Riviera has gained a reputation down the years for being a ‘fader’s paradise’.

And that leads us towards a top 20 punt on Alex Noren, whose stock shot has always been a left-to-righter.

It makes sense that he would perform well here so does the theory play out?

The answer is yes. The Swede was tied 16th on debut in 2018, made the cut on his second visit in 2020 and improved to tied 12th last year.

On a tough course, it’s impressive that 10 of his 12 rounds have been par or better.

Noren is another player coming to the boil nicely after finishing tied 39th at Torrey Pines and then jumping up to tied sixth at last week’s shootout in Phoenix.

The putter looks hot and it seems a reasonable ask that he can make the top 20 at Riviera for the third time in four appearances.

Back the Noren top 20 at +250 with DraftKings Sportsbook.

A more ambitious play is the top 10 at +600. Don’t rule that out either.

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The Genesis Invitational Information

The Genesis Invitational
Tournament The Genesis Invitational
Location Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, CA
Time Thursday, February 17 – Sunday, February 20
How to Watch Thursday-Friday 4pm-8pm ET (Golf Channel), Saturday 1pm-3pm (Golf Channel), 3pm-7pm (CBS), Sunday 1pm-3pm (Golf Channel), 3pm-6.30pm (CBS). All 4 days on Sky Sports
Image for Dave Tindall

AUTHOR

Dave Tindall

77 Articles

Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.



Email: [email protected]

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