Genesis Scottish Open Predictions: Time for Tommy

Written by: Dave Tindall
Updated July 10, 2024
7 min read
  • The Renaissance Club in North Berwick plays host

  • The Open Championship takes place at Royal Troon, Scotland, next week  

  • World No.1 Scottie Scheffler skips this event

Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Odds

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PlayerOdds 
Rory McIlroy+650
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Xander Schauffele+850
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Collin Morikawa+1400
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Ludvig Aberg+1600
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Tommy Fleetwood+1600
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Viktor Hovland+1600
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Tom Kim+2500
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Min Woo Lee+2800
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Hideki Matsuyama+2800
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Matt Fitzpatrick+3300
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Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Predictions

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Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Predictions

Genesis Scottish Open 2024 Intro

For the third straight year, the PGA TOUR co-sanctions the Genesis Scottish Open.

And that means a world-class field heads to The Renaissance Club in North Berwick once more.

It certainly makes a lot of logistical sense with this year’s Open Championship taking place about a two-hour drive away at Royal Troon the week after.

But not everyone is taking advantage of a links warm-up and World No.1 Scottie Scheffler is the most notable absentee.

Tony Finau and Patrick Cantlay are among the other big names to sit this one out. 

That leaves Rory McIlroy at the front of the betting as he looks to repeat his dramatic victory in this event last year.

The Renaissance Club, situated next door to Muirfield where Phil Mickelson won the 2013 Open, plays host for the sixth consecutive year.

It’s a par 70 measuring just over 7,200 yards. As with many links courses its best defence is the wind and it’s very often a factor.

It blew two years ago and Xander Schauffele won with just 7-under while, rather unusually, the last eight editions of the Scottish Open have been won by eight different nationalities.

The forecast this week suggests a fair amount of rain but lightish breezes around 10mph.      

Last 5 Winners of the Genesis Scottish Open

YearChampion, nationality and winning score
2023Rory McIlroy (Northern Ireland) -15 
2022Xander Schauffele (United States) -7 
2021Min Woo Lee (Australia) -18 
2020Aaron Rai (England) -11 
2019Bernd Wiesberger (Austria) -22

*There was no tournament in 2020 due to the pandemic

Course Notes

  • The Renaissance Club is a par 70 and measures 7,237 yards

  • The tournament became a Rolex Series event in 2017

  • From 2022 it’s been co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour 

  • Bernd Wiesberger posted the 72-hole record of 262 in 2019

  • Wiesberger and Byeong Hun An hold the 18-hole record of 61 

Favorites to Win the Genesis Scottish Open 2024

Rory McIlroy (+650) at BetMGM

McIlroy looked set to be pipped by local star Robert MacIntyre last year but, in testing conditions and playing the tough 17th and 18th, he finished birdie-birdie to score a dramatic win. That wiped out the previous modest course form of MC-34. This is the first time we’ll see the Northern Irishman in action since his gut-wrenching loss at the US Open.

Bet on Rory McIlroy (+650) at BetMGM 

Xander Schauffele (+850) at BetMGM

Schauffele must be a big contender for the Claret Jug next week and that’s partly down to showing his links prowess by winning this tournament two years ago. That followed a 10th on debut in 2021. He’ll play it as a Major winner for the first time, his PGA Championship win the highlight of a high-class season showing seven top 10s in his last 10 starts.

Bet on Xander Schauffele (+850) at BetMGM     

Collin Morikawa (+1400) at BetMGM

Like McIlroy, Morikawa is also a former Open winner although he didn’t exactly telegraph that win at Royal St George’s in 2021 after finishing 71st here the week before. He also missed the cut on his only other appearance in 2022. His current form paints a far brighter picture: three top fours and three further top 16s in his last six starts.

Collin Morikawa (+1400) at BetMGM at BetMGM     

Fleetwood to Make Breakthrough

Tommy Fleetwood captured his seventh DP World Tour win when landing the Dubai Invitational at the start of January.

But he still remains without a PGA TOUR title to his name.

This could be his golden chance though: a co-sanctioned PGA TOUR event played on Scottish soil.

The Englishman’s first-ever DP World Tour win came in Scotland when he landed the Johnnie Walker Championship at Gleneagles and he’s had plenty of other big performances there including two second places at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

He’s also been a runner-up here on his Renaissance Club debut in 2020 while he’s since added fourth in 2022 and sixth last year so is very much a course horse.

Fleetwood has had an excellent season, with finishes of third (Masters), 26th (PGA Championship) and 16th (U.S. Open) in the three Majors.

In fact, he’s only been outside the top 26 in one of his last nine worldwide starts.

Fleetwood ranked 2nd for Strokes Gained: Approach when 15th at the Travelers Championship last time and his short game has been strong all season.

Back him each-way at +1800 with bet365 (1/5 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8).

Lee to Beat Matsuyama

We landed the 72-hole match bet last week by picking Rocket Mortgage winner Davis Thompson to beat Jason Day. He did so by 12.

Thompson was also pointed out as a good option in the ‘win’ market at +2500.

This week I’ll back the outsider and get with Min Woo Lee to beat Hideki Matsuyama at +100 with bet365.

Lee won this event in 2021 and has two other top 35s at the Renaissance.

By contrast, Matsuyama crashed out at halfway on his only visit in 2022, was 68th in the Open at St Andrews that same year and has missed four of his last five cuts in Scotland.

Lee was 21st at St Andrews in 2022 and finished runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic on his latest start.

Even though Matsuyama is in good form too, Lee’s course form gives him the nod.         

Van Rooyen to Land Top 10

Erik Van Rooyen heads to Scotland on the back of a sixth place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The South African now has four top 10s in his last 12 starts and is a good bet here to land another at +700 with bet365 Sportsbook.

Van Rooyen, a big lover of links golf, was sixth here in 2020, the halfway leader in 2019 and fired a 63 in round two last year. 

How to Watch the Genesis Scottish Open 2024

  • Tournament: Genesis Scottish Open

  • Location: The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland

  • Date: Thursday, July 11 - Sunday, July 14

  • How to Watch: Thursday-Friday 10.30 a.m.-11 a.m. ET (Golf Channel - world feed), 11 a.m.-2 p.m. (Golf Channel), Saturday-Sunday 10 a.m.-12 p.m. (Golf Channel), 12 p.m.-3 p.m. (CBS). And all four days on Sky Sports.

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Dave Tindall

Golf Betting Analyst

Expertise:
Golf
Betting Picks
Dave Tindall is former golf editor at SkySports.com and Golf365.com and has been writing betting previews for the PGA Tour and European Tour since 1997. He has also written for a range of betting companies, including William Hill and Betfair, as well as being a regular columnist for Rotoworld, The Guardian, Sporting Life and Planet Sport. His other area of speciality is football while he's also covered cricket and tennis.
Nationality: British
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Psychology and Media)
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Experience:
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