2020 Acorn Stakes (Belmont Park) - Predictions & Betting Odds

2020 Acorn Stakes Belmont Park

“If you're playing only to win, go with my top pick, Casual.”

Post Position and Odds – Acorn Stakes

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2020 Acorn Stakes at Belmont Park!

PPHorseOddsJockeyTrainer
1GAMINE7/5
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J VelazquezB Baffert
2LUCREZIA9/2
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J LeparouxA Delacour
3WATER WHITE12/1
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J A Vargas Jr.R Rodriguez
4CASUAL3/1
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R Santana Jr.S Asmussen
5GLASS CEILING12/1
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J RosarioD Gargan
6PLEASANT ORB15/1
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M FrancoB Tagg
7PERFECT ALIBI5/1
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I Ortiz Jr.M Casse

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A year ago, Guarana used the Acorn Stakes as a coming-out party, winning the Grade 1 race in only her second career start, while setting a stakes record in the process. Two fillies, only slightly more experienced than Guarana was, will look to follow in her footsteps when a field of seven lines up for the $300,000 test for 3-year-old fillies on Saturday at Belmont Park.

Going a flat mile on the Belmont Stakes card, both Gamine and Casual come in with a perfect record in two career starts and figure to be the top two favorites in the Acorn.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Gamine should rule the favorite on the strength of impressive wins at Santa Anita Park and Oaklawn Park, while Casual figures to be the second choice for trainer Steve Asmussen off sharp victories at Oaklawn and Churchill Downs.

After the two potential stars, Lucrezia and Perfect Alibi figure to also get plenty of support. Both are multiple stakes winners and should appreciate the one-turn mile trip of the Acorn.

Acorn Stakes Race Information

What to watchAcorn Stakes (G1)
WhereBelmont Park
WhenSaturday, June 20 — 4:15 pm EST
How to watchNBC Sports
Purse$300,000

Race Analysis

Gamine

It seems like we’ve been talking about this much-hyped daughter of Into Mischief for some time, but it’s only been a little over three months since she romped in her career debut at Santa Anita. Since then, she earned a hard-earned victory over a quality opponent in Speech in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park. That one came at 8 ½ furlongs, which should set her up well for the demands of the one mile trip of the Acorn. She’s got speed and should try to play a game of catch me if you can from her inside draw. She has every chance to win here, but both Casual and Lucrezia have the early pace to be breathing down her neck down the backstretch. It’s another Baffert favorite and one that I’m willing to take a shot against considering the expected low odds.

Casual

She may not be talked about as much as the favorite, but the first two races for the supremely bred daughter of Curlin and Lady Tak have been very impressive indeed. First in a fast 6 furlongs at Oaklawn, and then a sharp 7 furlongs at Churchill Downs, she showed the ability to keep in touch with a fast early pace, before kicking it in the stretch to power on by her competition. Obviously the quality she will face only gets tougher in the Acorn, but her running style, as well as her progression into this race, seem ideal for the one-turn mile. She is the top pick to coller and defeat the heavily favored Baffert filly.

Lucrezia

Another who has proven that she has the early speed to be right there in the opening fractions, and then the ability to finish with a flourish. She couldn’t quite handle Swiss Skydiver last time, but that has been true of everyone who has faced the division leader of late, and Lucrezia’s second-place finish was very solid. Her previous stakes wins at Tampa Bay Downs demonstrate that the tricky one-mile should be right up her alley. If the two lightly raced fillies are not quite up to their press clippings, this tough filly should be there to take full advantage. As the likely third choice on Saturday, she offers a good alternative to the favorites.

Perfect Alibi

Although she has been away for nearly eight months it would be hard to completely discount this multiple graded stakes-winning filly from the barn of Mark Casse. Last year, the daughter of Sky Mesa was one of the top juvenile fillies in the land. She also proved mentally strong enough to find room when little was there. Granted this is a very tough spot in which to make her first start after a long time away, but if she is ready to roll, she might just get a good pace set up, with the three above her all on or near the early lead. I am going to wait and see how she returns, but I would not argue with anyone who wants to take a shot on her Saturday.

Glass Ceiling

A winner of two-straight for the barn of Danny Gargan, this Constitution filly is out to make her claiming days a distant memory. While the competition gets much stiffer in here, she might be the fastest of the three longshots in the race. In her only previous try against graded stakes company, she backed out pretty badly in last year’s Demoiselle, but her recent form is good, and this is probably a better distance for her.

Water White

The good news is that the Rudy Rodriguez-trained filly won the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct with a late rush in her most recent race. That is where the positives end, though. While it came at the Acorn’s one-mile distance, the final time of 1:40 and change is not in the neighborhood of what she will need on Saturday. Granted it came on a slower track, but the point is, she just looks a little too slow for this group.

Pleasant Orb

From trainer Barclay Tagg and ridden by Manny Franco, this filly will give the duo a dress rehearsal for Tiz the Law’s run at the Belmont Stakes. That is where the similarities end, though, with the heavy favorite in the Belmont. Having said that, coming off a decent third behind the talented Tonalist’s Shape last time, you could do worse in backing the longest shot on the board. She’s not without hope.

Best Bets for the Acorn Stakes

Here are my plays ($30 in total)

$20 Exacta Casual over Gamine = $20

$10 Exacta Casual over Lucrezia = $10

If you’re playing only to win, go with my top pick, Casual.

Bet on our pick Casual (3/1)!

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