Image for Brian Zipse Brian Zipse - October 14, 2022

Preakness Stakes Predictions, Picks, Betting Odds

Preakness Stakes Odds and Post Position

Check out our predictions and odds for the 2022 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico! Odds taken from TwinSpires Sportsbook!

PP Horse Odds Jockey Trainer
1 SIMPLIFICATION 6/1
BET HERE
J Velazquez A Sano
2 CREATIVE MINISTER 10/1
BET HERE
B J Hernandez Jr K McPeek
3 FENWICK 50/1
BET HERE
F Geroux K McCathan
4 SECRET OATH 9/2
BET HERE
L Saez D W Lukas
5 EARLY VOTING 7/2
BET HERE
J Ortiz C Brown
6 HAPPY JACK 30/1
BET HERE
T Gaffalione D O’Neill
7 ARMAGNAC 12/1
BET HERE
I Ortiz Jr T Yakteen
8 EPICENTER 6/5
BET HERE
J Rosario S Asmussen
9 SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING 20/1
BET HERE
J Alvarado S Joseph Jr

Preakness Stakes Predictions and Best Bets

Here are my plays ($65 in total)

$20 Exacta – Secret Oath over Epicenter = $20

$5 Exacta – Secret Oath over Creative Minister = $5

$2 Trifecta Key – Secret Oath over Epicenter, Creative Minister, Simplification, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking over Epicenter, Creative Minister, Simplification, Early Voting and Skippylongstocking= $40

Top Pick: Secret Oath (9/2)

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Preakness Stakes

A strong second to Rich Strike, the surprising winner of the Kentucky Derby, Epicenter is the headliner of a field of nine set for Saturday’s 147th edition of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes.

A brave runner-up in the Derby, the son of Not This Time is a three-time stakes winner for trainer Steve Asmussen. The biggest of his wins was the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby, which is the same distance as the middle jewel of the Triple Crown.

Joel Rosario will be in the irons for the fifth consecutive time on the 6/5 morning line favorite at Pimlico.

Chief among his rivals will be the filly Secret Oath. A three-time stakes winner herself, the daughter of Arrogate comes into the Preakness off a clear-cut victory in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks on the day before the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Secret Oath will be looking to give her legendary trainer his seventh victory in the Preakness.

The second choice on the morning line at 7/2, Early Voting will be making only his fourth career start on Saturday for Preakness winning trainer Chad Brown.

A winner of the Grade 3 Withers back in February, the son of Gun Runner suffered his only defeat last time in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. The defeat was a good effort, though, leading all the way before being passed in the final strides by Mo Donegal.

The Preakness field is rounded out by Simplification, Creative Minister, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking, Happy Jack, and Fenwick.

Before placing any bet check out our horse racing calculator!

Preakness Stakes Predictions and Race Analysis

Epicenter

An extremely game second as the Kentucky Derby favorite, the loss did nothing to tarnish his reputation. He’s won stakes impressively on the front end, but in the last two, the son of Not This Time has demonstrated the ability to sit behind the early leaders and pounce on the turn.

That’s a good quality to have, but with the morning line’s second choice in the Preakness having plenty of early speed, it will likely be up to the favorite to go after him sooner than later. If he can go by Early Voting without too much trouble, it will likely lead to victory.

If, however, he struggles in putting away that rival, it could set the table for another come from behind winner. He’s clearly the one to beat, but as a heavy favorite, and coming out of a tough race, I am willing to take a shot to beat him on Saturday.

Early Voting

Five years ago, trainer Chad Brown brought in a lightly raced and fresh horse to the Preakness and came away with his first classic victory with Cloud Computing. He is following the same script this year with Early Voting in hopes of history repeating itself.

This son of Gun Runner has looked good in his first three starts, winning the Withers and just missing in the Wood Memorial. Further improvement on Saturday in his fourth-lifetime start certainly puts him in with a big shot on Saturday.

His best chance will be on the front end, though, and that means Epicenter, and possibly a few others, will be breathing down his neck down the backstretch. For that reason, I will not pick him in the Preakness, but he is clearly a real threat.

Secret Oath


My top pick in both a loss in the Arkansas Derby and a win in the Kentucky Oaks, I am eager to bet this talented filly once again in the Preakness. I hated her ride when finishing third in the Arkansas Derby, but after a rider changed to Luis Saez, I loveded what I saw in the Oaks.

She has that type of push-button acceleration that only the good ones have and that should set her up quite nicely on Saturday in the Preakness. While Epicenter has some dirty work to do with the early speed, she can wait and use her turn of foot to strike as they turn for home.

Not only does the D. Wayne Lukas daughter of Arrogate have an impressive burst of speed, but she has also proved quite nimble in putting herself into position. With speed in front of her, I expect her early rally will prove very difficult to deny. She is my top pick.

Simplification

Another son of Not This Time, this one wasn’t far behind in the Kentucky Derby. After getting shuffled back in the first few strides, he raced a little wide throughout and made up nice ground to finish fourth, beaten only 3 ½-lengths.

It marked his fifth consecutive nice effort since joining the stakes ranks on New Year’s Day. With a rider change to Johnny Velazquez and the inside most post position, look for the versatile runner to be much closer to the pace on Saturday.

He’s an easy horse to appreciate, and another strong effort is quite likely, but as far as winning the Preakness, I have to like a few others better.

Creative Minister

Like Early Voting, this son of Creative Cause has made only three-lifetime starts and has an identical record with two wins and once a second. While the morning line second choice has made his last two starts in graded stakes company, this gray colt will be making his stakes debut in the Preakness.

It is certainly a large jump in class, but it’s hard to fault what he has done so far, including a good-looking allowance score on Kentucky Derby day.

It’s also worth noting that his connections have demonstrated plenty of confidence in him by supplementing him to the Middle Jewel at a cost of $150,000.

I do believe they have good reason to be optimistic, as he has proven he can pass horses and seems to be getting better with each start. He’s in with a chance here.

Armagnac

A sharp allowance winner last time at Santa Anita, this son of Quality Road gets another shot at graded stakes horses after being well beaten in both the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby.

Perhaps the victory on May 8 signals that he deserves another shot, but I have a hard time believing in him when he was handled so easily in his first two graded stakes attempts.

More likely he is a horse who will add to the early Preakness pace, but not be around to fight it out for one of the top spots in the Pimlico stretch.

Skippylongstocking

Of the longshots, this is the one I could see running a good race. The son of Exaggerator showed flashes of talent early in his career as a horse who liked to be out there near the lead. In his last two, though, he was able to relax early and finish well.

In both the allowance victory and the third-place finish in the Wood Memorial, he looked like a horse enjoying the 9-furlong distance.

Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., he gets an extra half-furlong on Saturday and some legitimate speed to sit behind early. Another step forward could see him spice up the exotics at big odds.

Happy Jack

Overbet in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 23/1, this Doug O’Neill-trained runner never was close, ultimately checking in at 14th on the First Saturday in May.

Given the result, plus three other sound thrashings in graded stakes company, I’m left to wonder why he is coming right back for the Preakness.

Perhaps his connections see something in the son of Oxbow which has not yet manifested itself on race days, but even so, I find him hard to recommend here.

Fenwick

The longest shot in the field, this speedy son of Curlin has only a maiden victory from six starts. He did wire a good maiden field nicely at Tampa Bay Downs two starts back, but graduating to graded stakes racing, he finished way back in the Grade 1 Blue Grass behind Zandon last time.

A deserving longshot here, his only chance to make his presence known would seem to be going right after the early lead. When the real running begins, though, it’s hard to imagine him being involved with any real chance.

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How to Watch the Preakness Stakes

Preakness Stakes Race Information
What Preakness Stakes (Grade 1)
Location Pimlico Race Course
Time Saturday, May 21 — 7:01 pm Eastern time
How to Watch NBC
Purse $1,500,000

 

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AUTHOR

Brian Zipse

218 Articles

Taken to the races at a very young age, Brian has been a passionate fan of horse racing his entire life. Professionally, his work has been published on several leading industry sites. Brian served as the Editor of Horse Racing Nation from 2010-2017, where he still writes a regular column and hosts the popular weekly webcast HorseCenter.

Email: [email protected]

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